|
stove calculations i dont understand
first of all, sorry, i havent made enough posts to convert and post the hand.
im sure the answer is simple but i cant spot it. scenario came from a 50L hand in which i call unknown 50bb stack's 4bb pf raise from BU with two callers between with Js 9s (the other two callers and i are 100bb deep). flop is 8s Qs 4h. checked to me, i bet close to 3/4 pot, hoping to either take it down or see a free river. villian raises 3x, folded to me and i shove thinking his range is typically overpairs or AQ and being short-stacked, he wanted to c/r to get the BU steal attempt or KQ/JQ bet in the pot and then commit, rather than donking flop and being folded to. he snap calls and shows 88.
i ran the hand through stove, which informed me he was 51-48, slight favourite with 88. so with the dead money in there, and whatever fold equity i might have had, i was happy with my shove. however, changed his hand to QQ in stove and his equity became 81%. considering any set is beat by a straight or flush (which is obviously where im deriving my equity), and any set on that flop has equal chance of a redraw should i hit the turn, why does it make a difference which set he flops. as i have no pairs, i cannot make a bigger full house than him.
|