thought process?

just wanted a quick check of my thoughts.

there was a poster in lp that i didnt know. the blinds were running uber tight. the limper was rather loose (something like 65/30), not a large sample, but enough to know he was holding some crap i may still dominate...if it even held an A. top pair was likely good here if it hit. so, i try and isolate him...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($24.80)
SB ($27.90)
BB ($4.65)
UTG ($32.35)
UTG+1 ($15)
MP1 ($45.95)
Hero ($29.90)
CO ($25)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T, A. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, SB calls $1.15, 1 fold, MP1 folds.
when the blind called cold, i immediately thought higher A or pp set hunting, since he was running tight passive over a larger sample than i had on the limper.

Flop: ($3.25) A, 9, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $5.5, SB calls $3.50.
here is my question spot...i want to know right now where i stand. villain donk bets me, and i thought a set would just shove over a raise. i didnt want to raise much because if he just called, i thought a higher A was extremely likely, too. but, isnt the raise the better move here? it defines his hand better, may blow out trash since i raised pre, and may induce a greedy set to shove over?

Turn: ($14.25) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.
obv, i am heading for the free showdown, if i can get one?

River: ($14.25) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero ???
but, then this crap? my odds are pretty ridiculous to call, yes? but, since my read is that he is tight and passive, this isnt likely a bluff...or sensing weakness, is it? this is for pure value, and likely the set wanting AK to look him up?

Final Pot: $14.25

i felt this was fairly standard, but would anyone else play it more mechanically, with less thought? or, were the thoughts the better part about the hand to begin with?

He most likely has you beat here. I like the reraise on the flop to see where you stand. He either has a set or an ace with a higher kicker.

You played it just fine, assuming you called the river bet. His river bet is so very small that a fold is so far and away the wrong choice.

Looks really standard TBH

tight-passives occasionally wake up with a hand, yes

but here you have to call. your flop raise combined with opps donkbet made your river decision, you "offloaded" your decision

pot odds, yo

i knew that would be the response. especially, from the two of you...lol.

but, i didnt feel even 20% confident i was ahead. i was over 90% sure, in my head, that he had the higher kicker or set...nothing, i mean nothing, else made any sense to me.

and, since i was certain beyond those odds, i dropped the hand.

y'all may say, "bad fold," but i am still certain that over 90% of his range that calls my flop raise has me beat. i didnt mention this in OP, but he was running 8/2/.4!!

LOL 8/2/4! Good fold!

These are bluffs enough for the call to be at least neutral. You don't have to win it very often. Passive players bluff passively too and since the bet is designed to not look like a bluff it is effective for him. I call this all day as played.

If we're folding to this small bet on the river can the flop raise be right? If he is so tight and passive that this river bet means we're beat then what does his flop lead mean? Would he lead flop with a draw or a worse A here? If not then folding or calling on the flop are both better than raising I would think. The less likely we are to be ahead then the less value in protecting obv and finding out where we're at isn't a good reason to build the pot.

If he is that passive you could fold the flopbut that is probably too weak. I would prefer calling the flop and folding turn if he fires again, or bet turn if checked to. This line would get you away from his stronger hands cheaper and allow us win the pots when he is drawing or has a worse hand. Assuming he plays it straight forward.

Extra thought:

On the river, I'm leaning towards a raise than a fold.

raising to find out where you stand is a farse. The vast majority of the time you are folding out hands that you beat and only allowing hands that beat you to continue.

Originally Posted by bode

raising to find out where you stand is a farce. The vast majority of the time you are folding out hands that you beat and only allowing hands that beat you to continue.

this is quite true, it is over-rated. If you are confused about where you stand in a hand, you should be raising, but rarely heads up. If you have a half decent hand heads up, you probably have a good enough hand to be slowplaying.

Originally Posted by bode

raising to find out where you stand is a farse. The vast majority of the time you are folding out hands that you beat and only allowing hands that beat you to continue.

which is exactly what i want here. you name me one person with the post flop skills, at 25NL, to drag along hands they beat, but avoid hands that beat them...w/o raising for definition or info, and i'll begin to think this is a good idea with such a marginal hand in a raised pot.

if we held AK, i can see your point. but, here, i need more information. and, a call and wait for turn wont do it as strongly as the flop raise. do you all really think he is only leading the turn for $3.50? that was my raise amount because i thought his turn bet would be larger than that if i called. and, if i sense weakness on the turn, i HAVE to raise his lead to fold him out. that just bloats a horrible pot with a stupid hand to do it with...way too much beats me to be building a pot. as played, i raise the flop, and a passive like him drops his bluff...something he likely wont continue, so i can see betting if checked to on turn, but that probably costs more, too, than the flop raise. at least $4+.

and, drew, do tell about why you consider a river raise?

it was also suggested that his bluffs are fairly frequent...at least more than 10% of the time...and passive, too. i understand that, i do that all the time, myself. a good looking "value bet" works as a bluff out of a guy like me who only shows down great cards. its how i balance my river value bets. and, it needs to work less than half as often as a river overbet to stay profitable. but, his flop lead is not the time, nor the place for a bluff. it WAS a hand. i raised to see if he was willing to bet 55, or TT. surely, he drops that to a raise on the flop with the A up. and, the raise gets me a free look at the turn when he only calls it...giving me one more chance to cooler myself with the T...lol.

bottom line: its a SHITTY spot. a good "isolation" move that backfired, and changed the whole course of the hand's playability.

this game is a battle of mistakes. he who makes the SMALLER mistakes wins. and i believe i made the smallest mistake i could have made other than folding the flop outright. but, staying true to form, i raised anyway for the slightest chance he may have been truly donkbetting a weak pp. i cant win the hand w/o doing something...i just did it early, when cheapest. again...small mistakes w/o allowing them to grow into bigger ones.

First of all, call>raise>fold.

It's very difficult to get monies out of hands that are weaker than ours after this river bet by villain. I lean towards a raise than a fold only because I feel we are ahead (guessing) at least 80-90% of the time here.

when such a tight passive player leads out, just watch out in this spot, he had you beat for sure with at least high kickers like J or Q. 50%/50% i 'd fold/call on the flop, depending on my comfortable level as played. On the river, you should call his small bet given huge pot odds and he did check on the turn, IMO. also, if he did have set or high kicker, just take a note on this guy after finding out what he had.

drew, you are shocking the crap out of me by thinking we are ahead here 80%+!! dude, are you looking at the same HH as i am? wow.

and, if you think we are ahead, but worse isnt calling often, why lean towards raise? i'm sorry, but if you dont have your soulreader turned on right now, i am not following you at all.


for all else saying "call due to odds"...

you realize that we are getting 5:1. thats fine. but who knows how confident you have to be to make that call profitably? its 20% to breakeven. you all think villain has an unsetted pp, or A7- here w/ his 8% vpip and passivity after a flop raise?

this villain is so tight, especially oop, that he checks the fold box when he sees <AJ. even if he played A8s, he has two pair.

besides, i am not getting the "call due to odds" responses when no one is providing THEIR range or confidence level to defend themselves. you are making your responses look like your standard "i didnt even think this through, but it looks really small" answer.

someone PROVE my range incorrect. or prove my confidence of LESS THAN 10% that i am ahead wrong.

otherwise, you are just piling on to pile on. and i dont see what that accomplishes.

i am a stubborn son of a bitch when i think i am right, but am trying to keep an open mind here. but, i need more than "call because of odds on river" w/o any explanation as to why my range is wrong, or why i should be even 20% confident that i am ahead here. i'm not paying $3 to see that i am beat here. i dont need the info for that price. i know its cheap, but i was THAT sure it was AQ+/88,99 BEGGING for a call.

Originally Posted by Chopper

if you think we are ahead, but worse isnt calling often, why lean towards raise?

you realize that we are getting 5:1. thats fine. but who knows how confident you have to be to make that call profitably? its 20% to breakeven.

you all think villain has an unsetted pp, or A7- here w/ his 8% vpip and passivity after a flop raise?


someone PROVE my range incorrect. or prove my confidence of LESS THAN 10% that i am ahead wrong.

I am not leaning towards a raise at all, I was just saying that it was a better option than folding. Calling is better than raising, raising is better than folding.

We are getting 6:1. The call is break even 15% of the time. To get this value: Call / Pot + Bet + Call

I don't put villain on a set or two pair often here because the only two sets possible other than AA are 99 and 88. I would expect two pair or better hands to be trying to extract more value out of you, and quicker, than villain has done in this hand. I think that if villain has a better hand than you, that you should be happy that you lost less than 40bb.

i'll be stubborn here and say, "i am still less than 10% confident in my hand being best here."

but, i will say thank you, drew, for spelling it out. i didnt even think of the 6:1. i would likely have called at 6:1...seriously. i just didnt like 5:1 because i saw 20%.

however, i also think the turn check behind was a failed c/r out of villain. and, i think he may have bailed his bigger betting idea on the river wanting SOME value out of a hand that clearly had given up on him.

ok. thats all i ever ask for. is a little contrarion proof. i am willing to admit i maaaaaybe should have called that one. lol.

another reason i call the bet on the river is because you checked the turn. Checking the turn minimizes your loses in this situation but also gains the max out of bluffing hands, weaker hands etc.