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Top pair + straightdraw vs. raise (NL25)

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  1. #1

    Default Top pair + straightdraw vs. raise (NL25)

    MP2 is a 28/5 with 1.5 AF. No special reads for him.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    MP3 ($34.10)
    CO ($10.25)
    Button ($68.50)
    SB ($33.15)
    BB ($24.40)
    UTG ($8.75)
    UTG+1 ($49.20)
    Hero ($23.70)
    MP2 ($27.15)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, J.
    2 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

    Flop: ($4.35) Q, T, 9 (4 players)
    Hero bets $2.75, MP2 raises to $5.5, MP3 folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $22.7, MP2 calls $17.20.

    Turn: ($49.75) 2 (2 players)

    River: ($49.75) 3 (2 players)

    Final Pot: $49.75

    I pushed this without thinking long about. But now I think it was a mistake, since he won't be bluffing and I nearly always will be behind against sets, two pairs or made straights. Two pair is only 60-40 but against a set I have only 25%.
    Should I just call? What to do with a blank on the turn? Or would you push, too?
  2. #2
    Miffed22001's Avatar
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    i actually think its not a horrible spot to c/c and have a look at the action behind.
    Also, you have to keep in mind (but not run scared of) that KJo/s is well within these guys ranges.
  3. #3
    This is a play I make without thinking a lot too. TP with an OESD just looks so good But now that we have the luxury of not having a timer running, let's think about it...

    This flop hit a LOT of hands. QQ-99/AQ/KQ/QJ/JT/T9 are not folding to a c-bet here, a range you're behind. So by c-betting you're building a pot, oop, with a hand that's a dog if raised and maybe even if called. Seems like a good argument for not c-betting! (Although in the heat of battle, I'd probably c-bet too.)

    So you've c-bet, essentially for information (whether you intended it or not). MP2, a passive player, minraises in a 4-way pot on a scary board. Alarm bells. I put him on QQ/TT/99/KJ/QT/T9. Thankfully he minraised, so he's priced in your draw. So call and re-evaluate turn. Likely c/f if the str8 doesn't come in, unless he gives you a great price again.
  4. #4
    Oh zook, I like your comments a lot
    Thanks to miffed, too , for all the nice thoughts.

    I now like bet/calling the flop and check/calling even more. Wouldn't mind if it gets checked around, too.

    Actually he flipped over QTs ...

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