Tough No limit hand

***** Hand History for Game 1197543424 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Friday, November 19, 16:37:10 EDT 2004
Table Home of the brave (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Boomer_1956 ( $33.18 )
Seat 3: Schu419 ( $32.85 )
Seat 6: BabyKamikaze ( $20.45 )
Seat 7: jdiana86 ( $69.6 )
Seat 10: AntiguaPete ( $38.75 )
Seat 4: BigNasty82 ( $17.4 )
Seat 9: mvaugh ( $5 )
Seat 5: billy440 ( $10 )
Seat 2: mulchit ( $40.95 )
Seat 8: bigbelly6 ( $24.5 )
Boomer_1956 posts small blind [$0.25].
Schu419 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BabyKamikaze [ Ac Kc ]
BigNasty82 folds.
billy440 calls [$0.5].
BabyKamikaze raises [$2.5].
jdiana86 folds.
bigbelly6 folds.
mvaugh folds.
AntiguaPete folds.
Boomer_1956 calls [$2.25].
Schu419 folds.
billy440 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, Jd, Ks ]
Boomer_1956 checks.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
>You have options at Table 23835 Table!.
BabyKamikaze bets [$4].
Boomer_1956 is all-In. (he had me more than covered so it costs me 14 to call)

With playing 4 tables at the same time its hard to get info on these people so the only thing I knew about him is once he bet into a flop all in with AA4 flop with 2 people seeing it with a 2 dollar raise with pocket jacks. (I had folded A5s or something is the only reason I remember)

So what would you do?

An all in with TPTK on a coordianted board without a read? Lay it down, live to play another day. He's got QJ at the very least as is protecting against all the draws.

-'rilla

Tough one w/o a read. At that level he is just as likely to have AQ or AJ as he is a set or 2 pair. Hell, he may even have the A10. But wait a minute, why is he pushing you AI on that flop had he flopped the str8?

I guess you have to put him on a set or 2 pair or big semibluff to the flush. I call, b/c I just don't care and I would rebuy if I busted out.
It's only 20 bucks.

Originally Posted by SteveO

Tough one w/o a read. At that level he is just as likely to have AQ or AJ as he is a set or 2 pair. Hell, he may even have the A10. But wait a minute, why is he pushing you AI on that flop had he flopped the str8?

I guess you have to put him on a set or 2 pair or big semibluff to the flush. I call, b/c I just don't care and I would rebuy if I busted out.
It's only 20 bucks.

lol, you should play poker with me more often! He may be pushing with the straight if he thinks he'll get a call (fishy move) and he's protecting against the flush. But I still believe two pair.

-'rilla

Good thoughts, I'll wait till tonight to post the end to see if anyone else has any thoughts on this.

On second thought I'll just post it now.

Boomer_1956 is all-In.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
>You have options at Table 12765 Table!.
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
BabyKamikaze is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7c ]
BabyKamikaze shows [ Ac, Kc ] a pair of kings.
Boomer_1956 shows [ Ah, Qd ] a pair of queens.
Boomer_1956 wins $12.73 from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
BabyKamikaze wins $39.85 from the main pot with a pair of kings.
Game #1197549341 starts.


This is my thinking. Im paying like 13 something for a 40 dollar pot.

This has me paying 32% of the pot and I knew with him having 2 pair at the time at least thinking of all the outs I have that would put me to think that at worst I was getting 50/50 on my money. With this thought I was like well shit for all I know this idiot doesnt even have 2 pair and knows this would scare a lot of people and is trying to take it down right there with the threat of 2 pair. So anyway thats why I called and for shits and giggles I calculated the odds on cardplayer just now and this is what it was

Against KJ 37% to me
Against QJ 37% to me
against KQ 27% to me.

So I wasnt too far off on my odds with him having 2 pair. KQ is the only one that would have made it incorrect to call but given the fact I thought there was at least a decent chance he didnt even have 2 pair I made the call.


So what do you think now? Still think I should of folded now that you see the actual odds and given what I said.

Very curious play with AQ but hey can't argue with the results. I didn't really focus on the odds but if that was your reasoning, its a boarderline call. It would have been a laydown out of me but then again, I expected more from him.

I guess that's why it's so hard to play against the fishes, you never know how much you dominate them.

-'rilla

If i were bondock i would have called. I know you have a good enoguh BR and with TPTK you should call this, even iif he has two pair you still have some outs against him. You also mentioned this guy made a big bet with an AAx flop while he was holding JJ, it seems this is the kind of guy that likes to force people out when he sees a scary flop, just based on that i would have called this bet.


-anto

Basing a read off one hand is a dangerous practice. You should have played it readless and lived to play another day.

-'rilla

I'd probably have found a fold here too. I have a hard time putting him on AQ (why raise big with 2nd pair) without a strong read on him (although you did have a bit of a read and saw him overplay a hand previously). If you feel AQ + bluffs are any possibility here, it probably is +EV to call. Against most people though I'd have to play it as Gorilla would have....assume it's 2-pair or better and fold. Note that I said 2 pair or better. You're right that you have a decent number of outs vs. most 2-pair hands. You don't have as many outs vs. AT or a set of any kind. 2 pair is much more likely than a set, but AT is a strong possibility (If he'd call a preflop raise with KQ/KJ/QJ, he probably would with AT too).

In conclusion, I'd find a fold here but I don't hate your call based on:

1. Your previous observations of his play.
2. Your % chance of sucking out on a 2-pair hand relative to the pot size.

but hey can't argue with the results.

being result biased sucks. with range of hands that could push in this hand, this should be a easy lay down.

I'm thinking at best you are tied, otherwise you are underdog to

set/straight/2pair (both sets and 2 pairs very often will push in this sitation)

what kind of hands did you expect him to have when you called?

what kind of hands did you expect him to have when you called?

I expected him to have 2 pair or lower since he had shown what he was capable of earlier.