tptk on dry board vs fit or fold fish

[oskar]

Villain is 40/9 over 90 hands. 85% fold to c-bet.
I have a note that he vbet the nut straight for 1/4 pot on the river. Looked like scared money.

Later on I saw him call an utg minraise from MP, and then overcall a button 3b to $10 with AQ, and cc an 883 flop and check/minraise a Q on the turn.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($133)
UTG+1 ($75.31)
Hero ($100)
MP2 ($203)
MP3 ($101)
CO ($366)
BTN ($61.89)
SB ($180)
BB ($214)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 9 players) Hero is MP1
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50, 3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP2 folds, BTN calls $8

Turn: ($29.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14.75, Hero folds

Final Pot: $29.50

BTN wins $43.52 ( won +$16.77 )

Hero lost -$12
MP2 lost -$4

I c-bet that small because of stack sizes - I can get it AI by the river anyway. I didn't think I could get 3 streets of value from QJ or worse once the K hits, so I went with check turn, bet river.
He's very stationary - only ever seen him bet the ueber-nuts up to that point.
If I call, he only has half a psb left, which makes a c/f on the river super gay.

Only playing 4 tables at the time, and having observed most hands that he played, I feel pretty confident that folding the turn is fine as played, but I was wondering about the overall line... bet sizing and checking turn...
And I'm also a bit confused about what range I can give him for calling the flop - his AQ hand later in the session didn't shed much light tbh.

[Renton]

turn's an easy bet

[oskar]

So bet turn, shove river? - Pot will be 60, and he'll have 30 left.
Wouldn't he have to stack off with pretty much his entire flop calling range?
I'm only around 50% equity vs nuts hands and Q7s+, Q9o+... and idk if he's calling any wider pre.

What if I was in position - would checking back and betting river be more reasonable?


Board: 3s Qh 2d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.123% 50.41% 03.72% 1730 127.50 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 45.877% 42.16% 03.72% 1447 127.50 { QQ+, 33-22, AQs+, KQs, Q7s+, 54s, AQo+, KQo, Q9o+, 54o }

[daven]

i bet turn, sizing similar to flop.

[oskar]

a-ha!

I normally don't ever bet size like that on the turn, but I can't think of a better spot to do it.