He's got 3bet % of 6% in the SB so I'm assuming he'd reraise me with AQ+ and QQ+ preflop. So his calling range preflop includes: any pair, suited broadways. I need some help figuring out how often this guy will have the missed flush draw here over valuebetting 88 and JJ for me to make this call, given I'm getting 2.5-1.

His stats are: 17/10 over 2k hands at folds to cbet 65%.
FWIW, UTG was a monkey (and I was stacking off vs).

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($120)
UTG ($123)
MP1 ($78)
MP2 ($110.35)
CO ($37)
Hero (Button) ($200)
CK the 1 (SB) ($198)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, Hero raises $8, CK the 1 calls $7, 1 fold, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($26) 4, 4, 8 (3 players)
CK the 1 checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $18, CK the 1 calls $18, 1 fold

Turn: ($62) 2 (2 players)
CK the 1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($62) 4 (2 players)
CK the 1 bets $40, Hero...