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 Originally Posted by Bmxicle
pretty much anything he could reasonably have you don't really beat by the river except for AK, A9, k9 but those aren't too likely.
Agreed. Given how this hand went down, let's analyze his likely holdings:
- He pre-flop raised 3xBB, a standard amount for a high pair or high card hand. However, he was almost last to act that round and there was only one limper, so it could be a steal.
- He bet out on a flop of 229 and then flat called your raise. That tells us one of two things: either he's a bad player who can't let go after he shows any aggression, or he's a decent player who has some kind of hand. In category 1, he might have: AK, AQ, AJ, etc. (basically any two face cards), or even nothing. In category 2 he might have: any overpair aces through jacks; also possibly a middle pair, let's say sixes through eights; A9, K9, Q9, J9, or T9.
To me the most likely hand for the way everything happened is pocket jacks or pocket queens. He pre-flop raised, bet out when the board came all unders, flat-called a raise, called your all-in. If he doesn't have the 2 himself, then he thinks at least that you don't have the 2, and if you have the 9 he beats you. He might also have pocket tens, the one option no one ever accounts for in these scenarios.
Second most likely is that he's a stubborn mule that can't get rid of AK or AQ. He sort of knows you're ahead of him, but thinks he "has outs" (the cry of the losing poker player).
Third most likely is that he's sucking you in with pocket 9s. But I kind of doubt it. His flop bet doesn't look like a flopped house.
Fourth most likely, top pair good kicker. He has a 9 and doesn't put you on an overpair.
Fifth most likely, something with a 2 in it... maybe A2? It's hard to see but if he's tricky or a maniac, it's possible.
Last, a middle pair of some sort lower than a 9. If so, he's truly a fish.
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TT w/ low flop
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