Turned set

Sb has been opening pretty wide and calling close to 60% of pfr's.
His stats are like 63/40/55 agg with 70 ftcb so im gunna be cbetting a ton.

He initially bought in for like 25 bucks but has gotten into two big pots a flush over flush spot where his line was 2/3, 2/3, overshove.

Hi range pre is extreeemely wide
His turn range consists of Made flushes, 2pair hands that dont want me checking behind for a free diamond..but his bet is so effing small its kind of scary, some Fd's that are looking for a cheap look at another diamond.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($50)
CO ($15.25)
Button ($50)
SB ($63.70)
BB ($50)
UTG ($53.45)
UTG+1 ($50)
Hero (MP1) ($53.40)
MP2 ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7, 7
2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) A, 5, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Turn: ($7.50) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero???

I think checking back the flop is better, but his stats were so exploitable that I was like auto cbetting.

check the flop for sure.

raise turn to $11.5

bet/fold any non diamond, pretty big on the river like 3/5 pot so like pot of $30ish like $21.5 except 6's and 8's like $12.5 on those.

check behind or on a diamond or fold to a river lead.

Betting the flop is best imo

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Betting the flop is best imo

WHY?

I cbet this flop.

Bbickes why do you think checking flop is best? Seems to me that he will call with worse and we have to protect our hand vs random overs. Do you think that he will play very straight forward on the turn enough to justify basing our action on what he does?

I'd check the flop too. There's just too many Ax, 9x hands he won't ever fold and bloating a pot like this with 3rd pair on the flop when we have position and the option to keep it smaller just seems pretty bad. Especially vs this type of player who may be spazzing all over the place and making us fold a huge number of turns and rivers.

Also you mentioned that his stats are super exploitable but you don't give us his fold to cbet or fold to double which is really the only vital stat to be looking at here.

Originally Posted by thelorax

Sb has been opening pretty wide and calling close to 60% of pfr's.
His stats are like 63/40/55 agg with 70 ftcb so im gunna be cbetting a ton.

his fold to turn cbet is 0/1.

the way they put it in "easy game" (note the author of that book typically favors betting over checking) concerning situations when only better is going to call and worse fold, ask yourself "how likely am i to get sucked out on" and i think on this board the answer is very likely as he is going to have a bunch of gutshots (87s/76s/86s/54s) fds (most diamond combos) and a ton of bricked overs such that you are going to hate almost any card in the deck. Force him to forfeit a solid equity share imo. Also i'm firing 1 and then done assuming we do not magic a set.