|
 Originally Posted by yorib
I'm basing my guess on your implied respect for your opponent and big laydowns occuring previously.
Given the pre-flop betting it seems like villian has 99+/AK/AQs. I'm not eliminated AA/KK/QQ because villian may fear either losing you with AA or being dominated by you having AA (and tossing out a 3rd raise).
Villian check/call on flop suggests that he belives the flop didn't help you, or he has a monster. This suggests he has AA/KK/QQ/JJ. If he's seen you c-bet routinesly, than he may give it no credit.
Villian check/call on turn may be due to your slightly weaker turn bet. I think it's reasonable for V to think that he has you beat, but doesn't want to reveal the strength of his hand.
The river is very perlexing. Him pushing would imply that he really wants you to fold. Remember you guys haven't shown down a hand yet inspite of all the betting. That has to mean that the A doesn't help him. I can't invision that QQ wouldn't want to place a more reasonable bet to see what you do, and AA would do the same thing trying to lure more $$. It almost seems like he has to have KK and was convinced you had AK/JJ/TT and is trying to push you off of AK at the risk of losing a bet from JJ/TT.
Of course, as a low stakes player, I could be completely wrong.
I like your logic on every street except the river. Villian has history with hero. Can he really put hero on AK missed? Is he going to make this bet with this read? I think we have to assume villian is giving hero more respect than this. I think if Villian is holding JJ/TT that hand went into the muck immediately on the turn. If he is trying to get OPP off a hand unimproved, he is C/R the flop or the turn to not let them catch up. I think your line of AA\KK\QQ is more relevant here. Also, in an unraised pot, I can put player on that raise with any PP if he is aggressive which means 77/44 is a concern here as well.
With that said, the range of hands we can put opponent on by the river:
AA, KK, QQ, 77, 44, AQ.
Obviously this assumes he wasn't bluffing, but I think its obvious this line was never a bluff. I stand behind that I think MIffed was beat on all streets here and the river just hung him out to dry.
|