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 Originally Posted by Renton
I think its a clear fold to the 3bet preflop. As played, This is a really tough flop. AxAd, KxKd, AxKd, AdKx, XdXd, and QQ are all ahead of you. I probably check fold the flop.
I really think XdXd are outside of his re-raising range there.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.7626 % 53.38% 00.38% { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KcKd, KdKh, KdKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs }
Hand 2: 46.2374 % 45.86% 00.38% { 6h5h }
I think that hand range is the absolute worst case scenario. I'm still getting odds to call the push after I bet. If you expand to include all QQ+, and AdQx, and AdKd (very unlikely, in my opinion).
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4465 % 47.63% 00.82% { QQ+, AdKd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs }
Hand 2: 51.5535 % 50.74% 00.82% { 6h5h }
I can see that maybe I should have folded this preflop and waited for a time where more money was behind (or I was in position (and preferably both)) Still, I'm fairly confident that if I hit hard I stack him (with marginal cases being these ones).
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.6073 % 30.38% 00.22% { 6h5h }
Hand 2: 69.3927 % 69.17% 00.22% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
But check/fold flop? Doesn't that seem a little weak/tight to you after I hit two pair and it's heads up? Chances are good that he doesn't even have a diamond.
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