Two-pair vs. possible set

Okay, tell me what you think of this line. Keep in mind that at the turn the opp is extremely shortstacked (doesn't even have 2/3 of the pot).

$200 NL

PREFLOP
Villain limps $2 from EP
Raiser raises $10 from MP
Hero calls $10 from LP - [Js Ts]
Villain calls $8

FLOP - [Tc, 5s, 6h] - Pot is $33
Villain checks
Raiser checks
Hero bets $15 At this point i'm worried a little about the raiser's check - has he flopped a monster?
Villain calls $15 Now i'm worried about this guy - what hand flatcalls here? Does he have a set?
Raiser folds Okay, no monster lurking there

TURN - [Tc, 5s, 6h, Jc] - Pot is $63
Villain checks
Hero ????

At this point the villain only has $37 left. Any reasonable bet pot-commits me. Should I walk right in to a possible set, or do I risk giving a free card?

Villain is loose (37-7) and mildly fishy.

Half the pot is such a confusing bet - looks like you might have straight draw there - my range of hands for him:
PP 5s thru 9s, QQ
A5/A6/56
34/78/89

Definitely a tough call on what to bet - tricky situation - I say you lose some money to a set here - your options are to
1: bet 15-20 - but if he reraises his 37 you're calling anyway
2: bet 40 to put him allin - if he calls either he's stupid or he has you beat
3: check and see what he does - don't like this - free card to a draw?

Looks like #2 is the best way to go because of the money involved - #1 (with maybe like $25-$30 bet) would be better if there was more stack involved.

But what the hell do I know - just fun to speculate
That said and knowing that he is fishy, I bet he has the straight draw.

Play for stacks here. Better yet, fold pre-flop. Drawing hands suck in NL unless you can be the aggressor.

Fnord, I respectfully disagree. I love cold-calling raises in position, as long as the stacks are roughly 20x the raise, and the raiser has a relatively low PFR%.

I mean, i'm no Daniel Negreanu or Doyle Brunson, but it seems alot of the pros love doing this too.

If your opponent has AA/KK/QQ, you have a:
- 2.0% chance of catching 2-pair
- 1.4% chance of catching trips or a full-house
- 0.8% of flopping a flush
- 1.3% chance of flopping a straight

That's a 5.7% chance of catching a pretty powerful hand. I don't have the numbers for flopping 12, 14 and 15 out draws, but it's bet they bring the total up to 10%. Not to mention regular 8 or 9 out draws.

If you're against a passive opponent, they'll give you decent odds for your draws. If you're against an aggressive opponent, they'll pay you off handsomely when you hit one of your monsters.

I'm also getting considerably better at reading opponents, so that gives any hand added value in late position.

I think you're in a pretty powerful situation - as long as you have position.

The problem with a hand like JTs is that I'm going to have to fold a draw, catch second best or get outdrawn a lot.

Anyways, to finish the hand:

Hero checks

FLOP - some offsuit rag
Villain checks
Hero bets $38
Villain calls $38


Hero shows [Js Ts], two pair
Villain (aka fish) shows [Ac, 5c], one pair


So turns out I gave this opp far too much credit and was in fact giving him a free card to his backdoor flush draw.

Originally Posted by Lexicon Devil

So turns out I gave this opp far too much credit and was in fact giving him a free card to his backdoor flush draw.

This seems to be a re-occuring theme on this forum. I know it's NLHE and the hands people continue with tend to be stronger, however our opponents still play silly hands in strange ways.

Also, one needs to consider the alternate reality of forum posts as many players tend to only post losing hands as the results-oriented mindset says they must have done something wrong to result in a loss of so much money. When a typical player posts, you can almost reply in the dark "he has a set, fold" and look like a prodigy. Forget about hand ranges, profiles, etc. HE HAS A SET FOLD WHILE YOU STILL HAVE A BANKROLL!!!!

Compared to the stack sizes this is a standard medium sized pot, I Personally bet ~$22-25 on the flop and if that little nugget reraises me the remainder (which he probably will, considering his stack size its raise or fold) its an easy call, he may have a straight draw (most likley 78) a smaller kicker, overplaying a medium PP (77-99) and if he has a set which i think is very unlikley. But if this is the case then you are beat ... no biggie, next hand.
This to me seems like a very simple play, i dont understnad the confusion.