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Up against flush draw
Ok. So after getting nothing all night, and basically breaking even, my profits being lost to stupid decisions, finally I get a JJ. Not that super but it's nice.
I make a 8bb raise preflop. One guy is in, and the pot is pretty juicy due to dead money. The flop gives 3 undercards, 349 and two of them spades. Good, I got overpair, but there is a flush-draw out. Villain throws out a raise. Now I figure: this raise isn't enough for him to have something like AA, KK or QQ.. so I put him at either A9 or a flush-draw.
So I calculate:
- My stack is about 1.5x the current pot.
- If he has A9, I have great odds to win
- If he is going for a flush draw, 1/3 it hits. But he likely also has one or two cards over J. I figure one because otherwise he'd have had a BIG hand and raises more all around. So I give him 12 outs. That is about 44% chance to 'hit'.
- So, to give him bad pot odds, I have to bet over this percentage. He already put in some with his raise, so I figure that all-in is probably best.
He calls my all-in, shows Q9 spades. Just as I suspected. The turn gives him his flush and I'm out.
But my question is.. did I do the right thing? I think I did if my math is correct.. but any input is welcome.
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