Weak Starting Hand Scenarios

The idea is to increase my Shania by making more marginal hands slightly profitable/playable with good postflop play by representing whatever draw comes on the flop. Just wanted to run this by you guys.

I'm in the CO with Qd Td and 1 limper in MP, so I raise to 4xbb (preflop isn't the issue I want to discuss), TAGG intelligent button calls, limper calls for 3-way (hey it could happen).

TAGG could be low pocket somethings, a shy monster trying to extract, Axs, Axo, Good Suited Connectors (87s+), KQ/KJ, pot is 13.5bb, flop comes ____ and limper checks because he is passive. I put him on a fold.

A) Generic A-x-x rainbow
I think here I'm just going to eat my preflop bet and check/fold, I don't have any kind of hand or enough information and too many of opp's hands fit this flop well. I don't want to feed a set, KK, TPGK trying to slowplay because all of these hands are strong and likely won't lay down unless I can convince them that I raised AK or 44 in the CO and flopped a set, and I know that after I check here mid pair might even call me out.

B) Jd-5s-6s
I have a pair of weak backdoor draws and one overcard facing possible straight and flush draws. I think I bet out 3/4 pot to represent the J or a pocket pair that needs defending, pulling in the spade draw to my repertoire as well, so that if either player calls and a spade comes, I can represent it, but the double draw is concerning. Fire anyway?

C) Jd-7s-4c
The hand plays much differently I think with no real draws I think I represent the jack, and I can pull a fold out of QJ even and see where I'm at. I think not betting is a mistake as this flop definitely missed limper and possibly missed TAGG, plus I can bet 1/2 pot to sweeten my odds because there are no major draws except for 56.

D) 9c-5s-3s (suited rags)
I play a check-raise here. If my opponent is drawing to a spade he'll probably bet the semi-bluff and a check-raise should push him out, along with numerous pocket pairs that didn't hit and stone cold bluffs. If I bet out, it looks like I'm protecting a weak A9 against a draw or some kind of pockets, or that I'm protecting my draw, aka I look hella weak, so I'm check-raising here, representing a set or a very strong draw. Limper acts as a squeeze, so unless TAGG has a set I think both of these guys are pretty much dead.

If TAGG checks after me instead of betting - and god knows how often that happens - and the turn card comes a spade and limper checks, I think I bet a good sum to drive out unnecessary 4-flush/high card chasing and take it there or get pummeled. If the next card is not a spade or a card to improve me, then I'm running out of cards that don't help them AND I checked on the flop (weak?). I think I have two options: Bet big, a solid 3/4-1x pot, or just check. A small bet is just throwing money away, any hand could call on a bluff and then you're stranded on the river, whereas a big bet forces the pot odds but has some risk of running into actual spades. My folding equity is what? 30%? 40%? 60%? A check is passive, but viable, though it sends clear signals about not hitting the spade draw, and I think forfeits any chance of winning this pot, so I should only check if I'm certain a bet will be called, right? What do you guys think about this turn?

What if the limper bets the turn? (no spade) Can I conceivably raise, or is raising even a must?

Overall, can I make this hand profitable in this way? It has a touch of high card and a touch of connectivity and it's suited, so I have a number of ways to make a hand and can bet the flop or call bets legit, along with the chance of a strong 2-pair, and the slight chance of a big pot off of a well flopped or drawn straight, as well as Q flush draws, so as long as I don't lose a lot on a dominated Q or T on the flop (avoiding the fatal flaw), my hand range makes me potentially very dangerous on almost every board.

Does this trickle down to J9s, T8s? 97s? Q9s? How about 4-way? Heads up?

Food for thought.
~Techno

you need to think further on shania

and about c-bets, flop textures, ranges, etc.

Shania is a simple and old concept. The more hands you play the wider your range and the harder you are to guess, and most importantly, you get paid more on your good hands. The worse or more unpredictable the hand, the more Shania you get, and Shania is +EV. The trick is that on balance, some hands you play will be -EV and won't be worth playing for Shania. Am I missing something here?

Also what did you think of the flop scenarios? The turn scenarios?

Originally Posted by Technooo

Am I missing something here?

i think so

Originally Posted by Technooo

Also what did you think of the flop scenarios? The turn scenarios?

Don't think about your hand's strength on the flop, think about the strength of your range on the flop, and think about your fold equity as well as value.

I'm confused by your post. I'm talking about playing a hand series of hands that has essentially jack shit value because it missed the flop and it maybe has (shitty) high card outs and is working entirely on fold equity. I think that's all I'm thinking about, is fold equity and what I can represent. I'm asking if on the whole I can make this raise profitable from the CO preflop with good postflop play, and if these flop situations I posted look reasonable.

Situation A:
I check/fold because I don't feel like I have fold equity based on my opponent's range and there is a strong chance that one of my two opponents has a set.

Situation B:
My hand's value is weak but has a small % of backdoor draws, and it is more likely that my opponents missed the flop. If I get raised I fold.

Situation C:
It's very likely that everyone missed the flop, and I can even pull folds out of people that have hit a weak J, and I can increase my folding equity-risk ratio by betting smaller because there are no draws that will call to protect.

Situation D:
I check-raise here because unless there is a set out there everyone has to fold to it (I can't see how anyone would hold a hand that would hit 2 pair), whereas with a standard c-bet I set myself up to get donked on (someone with a mid pair like TT or even like 66 could easily raise me), and because it's the button C-bet while weak is so likely because he's a TAGG.

If it checks through to the turn I re-evaluate.

I just don't understand how I'm not understanding hand value and folding equity here. What I want to know is:

Did I do anything stupid?
Can I do anything clearly better?
Can this hand make a solid profit when played this way, when you include the times that I hit strong?

Situation A:
you're the PFR
they're callers

disregarding your hand, whose range has benefitted more from that flop? who's representing a stronger PF range?