Weird AA move for me - How's my line?

i put villain on AA-QQ here. given that range do you like this line? i have seen nothing to indicate villain is capable of folding AA-QQ on this flop.

***** Hand History for Game 4299086728 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, May 18, 02:34:35 ET 2006
Table Table 98885 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9

Seat 3: MartinDCX1E ( $27.95 )

Seat 4: Weirdboy ( $37.23 )
Seat 10: cardo0077 ( $23.05 )
Seat 8: sullyriko ( $24.79 )
Seat 7: HENRY625 ( $32.94 )
Seat 2: bdressendo ( $39.18 )

Seat 9: BongoPanda ( $26.45 )

Seat 6: outlong ( $5 )
Seat 5: srhp29 ( $25 )
MartinDCX1E posts small blind [$0.10].
Weirdboy posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to MartinDCX1E [ As Ah ]

HENRY625 calls [$0.25].
xuhuicheng has joined the table.
sullyriko folds.

BongoPanda raises [$1].

cardo0077 folds.
bdressendo folds.

MartinDCX1E raises [$5].

Weirdboy folds.
HENRY625 folds.

BongoPanda calls [$4].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 3c, 4c ] Pot = $10.00

MartinDCX1E is all-In for ~ $22

I think the chances of him holding AA here are pretty limited given you hold the other two.

Plus, if he was concerned with your re-raise pre-flop, he is going to crap his pants when you open push that flop. If he does have QQ or KK here, why not check or make a weak lead at this pot and let him be the one who shoves his chips into the pot. I think you are possibly providing him with an opportunity to fold here.

I dont see much point in the push. Id make a normal CBet. That way he probably raises me anyway if he wants to carry on.

Agree with previous two posts. I don't like the open push at all, it seems like the least desirable way to try to get his money. If he has an overpair like you think and can't let go of them like you think, you shouldn't make the most forceful argument possible for him to fold; you should encourage him to make a mistake. A standard or weak c-bet (no less than 1/2 pot and no more than 2/3) is perfect.

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here? i can understand the argument though about giving him the best opportunity to get away from it.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here? i can understand the argument though about giving him the best opportunity to get away from it.

A different way to look at this situation is how often might someone call your preflop raise with a pair other than KK-QQ here? You're raise all but shows what your hole cards are and if villian likes to gamble they have a very good idea of what they are looking for on the flop to take your stack. You could be leading out into a set and not suspect it here. I think overall this a line to avoid because it gives too much information preflop. I also think KK-QQ can get away from your push at 25NL given the preflop action.

Originally Posted by strawman

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here? i can understand the argument though about giving him the best opportunity to get away from it.

A different way to look at this situation is how often might someone call your preflop raise with a pair other than KK-QQ here? You're raise all but shows what your hole cards are and if villian likes to gamble they have a very good idea of what they are looking for on the flop to take your stack. You could be leading out into a set and not suspect it here. I think overall this a line to avoid because it gives too much information preflop. I also think KK-QQ can get away from your push at 25NL given the preflop action.

Well, the donks will ride their KK into the sunset. Better players fold like a cheap lawn chair. I guess the push might work against the first but certainly won't against the second. Just depends ... as they say.

Part of the problem to me is that hero is really trusting two halves of a read, either of which may be less than 100%. One, he believes villain has QQ or KK. Does he ever have AK, AQ, JJ, or TT here? Or even worse? Two, he believes villain can't get away from QQ or KK. Maybe he can't get away from KK (few can), but what if there's a 25% chance that he folds QQ to an open push? You're flirting with a lot of assumptions by making this play.

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

Originally Posted by bair

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

so we're getting all of our money in no matter what? is the only problem then that i'm giving him too good of a chance to fold?

yes, i really dont even have a problem with your line though at 25nl...i think QQ and KK calls here almost every time, maybe even AK and JJ, 25nl players try to find any reason to call.PT stats would be helpful by the way

I don't like the flop push because I'm capable of playing a much broader range of hands than QQ+ like this.

You're making it very easy to fold for him here.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by bair

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

so we're getting all of our money in no matter what? is the only problem then that i'm giving him too good of a chance to fold?

Yes. If he is an idiot who called that big-ass raise with a baby pair and flopped a set, you pay him off. But that's the dream flop for your aces considering the pre-flop action. You're BEGGING to get all the money in.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by bair

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

so we're getting all of our money in no matter what? is the only problem then that i'm giving him too good of a chance to fold?

Yes. If he is an idiot who called that big-ass raise with a baby pair and flopped a set, you pay him off. But that's the dream flop for your aces considering the pre-flop action. You're BEGGING to get all the money in.

ya i was never letting my AA go at any point. i didn't mean for it to sound like that.

If you put him on that range then I think a check-raise AI would be the best line. What do people think of that?

Originally Posted by andy-akb

If you put him on that range then I think a check-raise AI would be the best line. What do people think of that?

hmmmm. didn't even think of that

check-raise probably wont work...no one bets behind a check when opp reraises preflop. i think c-betting is the best line.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by bair

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

so we're getting all of our money in no matter what? is the only problem then that i'm giving him too good of a chance to fold?

Yes. If he is an idiot who called that big-ass raise with a baby pair and flopped a set, you pay him off. But that's the dream flop for your aces considering the pre-flop action. You're BEGGING to get all the money in.

Does hero's line justify villian's call here? I look at Hero's preflop raise as being the hypothetical equivalent of flipping his cards and showing Aces and saying call if you want to go fishing. Assuming villian does have a baby pair, villian is looking at calling $4 for a pot that has 6.60 in it plus 21.25 or Hero's stack. So villian has a good read on what Hero is likely holding but the inverse is not neccesarily the case. So let's narrow villians hand selections to 66/55/44/33. Either way he isn't getting enough implied odds to set hunt here but I think what villian is lacking in implied odds might be made up for by information about Hero's hole cards. Either way villian is entering a -EV situation in calling the raise but Hero can be blindsided with this line.

Any thoughts on this because I'm not even sure I believe what I'm saying.

Originally Posted by strawman

Does hero's line justify villian's call here? I look at Hero's preflop raise as being the hypothetical equivalent of flipping his cards and showing Aces and saying call if you want to go fishing. Assuming villian does have a baby pair, villian is looking at calling $4 for a pot that has 6.60 in it plus 21.25 or Hero's stack. So villian has a good read on what Hero is likely holding but the inverse is not neccesarily the case. So let's narrow villians hand selections to 66/55/44/33. Either way he isn't getting enough implied odds to set hunt here but I think what villian is lacking in implied odds might be made up for by information about Hero's hole cards. Either way villian is entering a -EV situation in calling the raise but Hero can be blindsided with this line.

Any thoughts on this because I'm not even sure I believe what I'm saying.

it's def. -EV for villain no matter what because if he has a small pair it will cost him too much in the long run to make up for the times he stacks me and since he is incapable of folding a high overpair on this kind of flop he loses his stack every time.

I would c-bet and re-raise

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

it's def. -EV for villain no matter
what because if he has a small pair it will cost him too much in the long run to make up for the times he stacks me and since he is incapable of folding a high overpair on this kind of flop he loses his stack every time.

1) How -EV do you believe this play to be for villian and what would it take to bring it closer to 0.

2) You keep insisting that villian can't lay this down and you stack him every time he doesn't hit a set. What is this based on? You can repeat this scenario but you aren't always going to repeat the cast of characters.

You seemed to have missed a key point to my argument. You line says "AA" so your opponent knows what he's facing but you don't know what you are so there is a correct play for your opponent on the flop and most of them are folding. I'd be willing to take a slightly -EV preflop situation if I knew what my opponents hole cards were.

Originally Posted by strawman

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

it's def. -EV for villain no matter
what because if he has a small pair it will cost him too much in the long run to make up for the times he stacks me and since he is incapable of folding a high overpair on this kind of flop he loses his stack every time.

1) How -EV do you believe this play to be for villian and what would it take to bring it closer to 0.

2) You keep insisting that villian can't lay this down and you stack him every time he doesn't hit a set. What is this based on? You can repeat this scenario but you aren't always going to repeat the cast of characters.

You seemed to have missed a key point to my argument. You line says "AA" so your opponent knows what he's facing but you don't know what you are so there is a correct play for your opponent on the flop and most of them are folding. I'd be willing to take a slightly -EV preflop situation if I knew what my opponents hole cards were.

1. i don't really know the exact -EV-ness for villain here.
2. i don't know with 100% certainty that he will call. however i honestly can't really see many unknown 25NL players folding here with KK/QQ. just so everyone knows villain called w/ KK and said "i knew i was probably up vs. AA but you got to gamble."

Strawman - if you know that your opponent has aces and you know the money isn't deep enough to make him fold those aces on most flops, you are basically relying on the implied odds of making your set - and as you already said, they're not there. This is a very, very -EV call with a baby pair against a re-raise from a TAgg player. You knowing what he has is not much insight unless you either A. make your set (and therefore get paid off on it); or B. hit a flop you can make him fold on. With $10 already in the pot, plus a near-guaranteed continuation bet of at least $5 coming from the hero (and probably more like 7-8), how often do you think you're going to be able to make him fold by bluffing? At these stakes I'd almost never fold aces after that re-raise. The whole point of raising that much, in fact, is to get into a pot-committed situation quickly so that it becomes correct to call ANY bet and your hand becomes bluff-proof.

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here?

I can;I've made incredible laydowns with KK and QQ against the better overpairs.

i like a 3/4 pot c-bet, then a delayed push over his raise.

Agreed.I'm convulsing violently while I shove if he calls because I fear the set or two pair.....but anyhoo..............

Originally Posted by WhooFleuryScores

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here?

I can;I've made incredible laydowns with KK and QQ against the better overpairs.

then i don't think you are representative of the majority

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by WhooFleuryScores

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here?

I can;I've made incredible laydowns with KK and QQ against the better overpairs.

then i don't think you are representative of the majority

Agreed. Avg 25NL villan will call this 70% with KK. Many 25NL players will call this push with JJ, QQ, TT, particularly if you've been aggressive at the table.

However, I still don't like the insta-push. You're giving up a lot of value with a moderate read.

Originally Posted by Chicago_Kid

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by WhooFleuryScores

how many 25NL players have you guys come across that fold KK/QQ here?

I can;I've made incredible laydowns with KK and QQ against the better overpairs.

then i don't think you are representative of the majority

Agreed. Avg 25NL villan will call this 70% with KK. Many 25NL players will call this push with JJ, QQ, TT, particularly if you've been aggressive at the table.

However, I still don't like the insta-push. You're giving up a lot of value with a moderate read.

agreed. a regular c-bet would've been just fine.

All I have to say is...

Your goal here is to extract more $ , not to get him to fold his cards.

You might believe he is incapable of laying down a high overpair, but first you must make sure that he HAS the overpair. He might go ahead and call a continuation bet with two overcards like AK, looking to pair up, and you can punish him further on later streets for drawing at it, or even completely destack him if he hits the A or K. However, there is no way he is calling this push if he hasn't made some type of hand. So why not just c-bet the flop and see what he has?

There's no reason not to.. If he has the overpair and you dont think he can lay it down, he is surely going to raise you (he puts you on overcards and does not want to let you hit them) , in which case you can come right back over the top of him and get your desired result.

You've got to give him a chance to make mistakes, not give him a free pass at getting destacked.

A guy who will call this open push with 1010-AA will eventually get all his money in anyway! I wouldn't check, i think that reveals a huge PP because it would be normal to bet. Just do a normal c-bet, if he folds, just keep in mind he would've done it to an open push also.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

agreed. a regular c-bet would've been just fine.