What does the villan have? interesting $100NL hand.

Hello,

The following hand caused a pretty big debate at another poker forum, so i thought i'd post it here without the outcome of the hand, and reversing the hero/villain perspective. So, to be clear, you are 'Hero', below, and you are playing against the Villain (preflop raiser)

Background - PartyPoker NL$100, villain is TAG, has shown a wide range of pf raising hands though.

The questions i'm asking is, what hand do you put Villain on, is there any way you can call with AK? What does his betting pattern and size of his bet on the river say about his hand range?

Dealt to Hero [ Ah Kd]
sharker666 folds.
i9nite folds.
AXELFOLDER folds.
Villain raises [$4].
Hero calls [$3.50].
Queeny_Bee folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 2s, 7c ]
Hero bets [$4].
Villain calls [$4].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9s ]
Hero bets [$2].
Villain raises [$9].
Hero calls [$7].
** Dealing River ** [ 3h ]
Hero checks.
Villain bets [$33.89]. this is the size of your stack. the pot at this point is $34.

I think hero is good here about more than 50% of the time to make this call +EV. Villians line makes no sense and looks like he doesn't want a call on the river. I am putting you on two overs, missed flush draw from turn, 55, or 66.

First thing, you might want to mention that hero's the small blind.

Ok: so I'm hero. Why am I calling preflop? I should be popping this back to $9 or letting this go (letting go because I don't have position). I vote the former.

But ok. Let's say I accidentally press the call button. We'll go from there.

I'm an idiot for continuation betting into a pot that I didn't have control of in the first place. However, let's say that I want to do this to mix it up.

Now, I'm an idiot for only betting $2 into what, a $15 pot? What the hell sense does that make? Ok: so I got raised - I should obviously fold here since I'm beat, but ok, let's say I call.

Hero's play is way too far off of mine to make an accurate assessment, but if you want my opinion, here it is.

I put you on 99. That seems like a good hand to be raising with from the button at a six handed table with no limpers in front. Otherwise, I put you on complete junk (see: this is where my raising preflop is good. I would be able to know one or the other at this point) which hits the flop.

Either way, I'm pwnt, and need to fold on the river.

Originally Posted by poorfish

I think hero is good here about more than 50% of the time to make this call +EV. Villians line makes no sense and looks like he doesn't want a call on the river. I am putting you on two overs, missed flush draw from turn, 55, or 66.

???????

I would say Hero would be good here maybe 10% of the time.

reraise preflop
stop playing like a passive/calling station/fish

The only interesting thing about this hand imo is how badly hero played it on every street.

I mean what can the button raise with? Absofuckinglutly any two in the deck. Ace high good? We are calling an all in with ace high and no information. Yeah thats a great play

If AK wins this showdown its like saying 'i got all my money in with a flush draw as a 2:1 dog but i won the hand so my call was right'
It matters little whether AK wins here, its about the play on all other streets.

if the hero is good here 50percent of the time than i'm doyle brunson.

miffed, i explained this pretty clearly in my first post, I AM NOT THE HERO! i am in fact the villain. i know the hero played his ak terribly, but i wasn't asking that, i was wanting an unbiased opinion on what the villain's (ME) play says about his hand range. i was gunna wait for a few more responses, but fck it. here's what happened.

hero called $33 with ak (ace high)

villain shows k-js (flush draw on turn). ace high takes it.

so once again, i had k-j here, and was pretty sure the villain had nothing, but i had no idea he would call with nothing. turned out his nothing was slightly better than my nothing. maybe my play was ott, but surely 99% of people fold ace high on the turn, and failing that, the river...

any thoughts on my play?

Originally Posted by CaptainMac

miffed, i explained this pretty clearly in my first post, I AM NOT THE HERO! i am in fact the villain. i know the hero played his ak terribly, but i wasn't asking that, i was wanting an unbiased opinion on what the villain's (ME) play says about his hand range. i was gunna wait for a few more responses, but fck it. here's what happened.

hero called $33 with ak (ace high)

villain shows k-js (flush draw on turn). ace high takes it.

so once again, i had k-j here, and was pretty sure the villain had nothing, but i had no idea he would call with nothing. turned out his nothing was slightly better than my nothing. maybe my play was ott, but surely 99% of people fold ace high on the turn, and failing that, the river...

any thoughts on my play?

You might want to admit to yourself that the villain had your number. I think he’s (hero in hand above) an idiot but your image may have deteriorated to the point that he believed he was good…and he was right. Next time, do this to him with a hand and watch him call. Hehe.
Just make sure you are taking your image at the table in mind when you make moves.

I noticed a big leak in my tag game was bluffing sort of like this, before getting a read that the person turns out to be a call station, incapable of folding mid/top/overpair (or ace high in your case, wow....)

Villain looks like an easy source of chips, and it looks like you didn't have a good enough read to do this on him, aka bluffing with little fold equity...or a bluff line that is too inconsistent with your made hands if he really did have your number. It takes a reallll good read, but it is possible for villain to know ace high is probably good. More likely is he is a big time call station though.

Originally Posted by benny999

I noticed a big leak in my tag game was bluffing sort of like this, before getting a read that the person turns out to be a call station, incapable of folding mid/top/overpair (or ace high in your case, wow....)

Villain looks like an easy source of chips, and it looks like you didn't have a good enough read to do this on him, aka bluffing with little fold equity...or a bluff line that is too inconsistent with your made hands if he really did have your number. It takes a reallll good read, but it is possible for villain to know ace high is probably good. More likely is he is a big time call station though.

Yeah, my point was coming from the perspective that you can't learn if you discount that you made a mistake. If the OP refused to admit that he MIGHT have made a mistake then he cannot learn from the hand. Once he admits that he MIGHT have made a mistake then he can evaluate it to see if he did.

your play is fine, opp should hardly ever call here. Ace high is funny however.
If this were 600nl i could understand but at these limits its just dim. Buddy list and play more

Man, I wish I hadn't read the real history before I got a chance to type this up. Anyway here are my thoughts

You raise hero calls. On the button villian could have any two. FLop is all low, hero makes a half-pot bet and villian calls. If villian had an overpair or two pair he'd have reraised for sure, no way he'd give another card with a strong but vunerable hand. Plus, normally a reasonable bet into the preflop raiser signifies some sort of hand. (Hitting the flop or an overpair). It's plausible that you would only call with a set (vs. reraise). Next card is a 9 and hero makes a weak bet. Villian substantially reraises. This could be because the villian senses weakness, or because the villian has (or got) a monster and wants to try and build the pot. If Villian had something like a low pp or paired the board, villian would likely check hoping for a cheap show down, as hero looks unlikely to bet much more.

The river is the telling point. If villian's hand was marginal (i.e. paired the board, or a low pp) villian would check down, or make a nominal bet (maybe $5 or so). Remember, hero could be on a draw, and one of the only draws just got filled in (a 6-7 just made a straight). With a very strong hand, villian would make a more aggressive bet something like $10 just hoping to get called. A push can only mean one of two things. Either you have absolutely nothing, or a monster. And by monster I mean a set/straight. No way you push with any other holding. Mathematically, it makes sense for hero to call (as it has to be more probable that you have nothing than set/straight).

I think the Hero called because he was confused by your line.

So, if you're asking about your range that could run this line? It's 22/33/44/77/99 (and 33 is very doubtful).