What's my river line?

Opponent just sat down, seems reasonable enough.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($182.45)
SB ($262.88)
BB ($201.50)
UTG ($329.80)
UTG+1 ($482.52)
MP1 ($51)
MP2 ($69.20)
MP3 ($241.10)
Fnord ($266.60)

Preflop: Fnord is CO with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, MP2 calls $2, 1 fold, Fnord raises to $10, Button calls $10, 1 fold, BB calls $8, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($33) 4, 9, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Fnord bets $20, Button calls $20, BB folds.

Turn: ($73) A (2 players)
Fnord bets $50, Button calls $50.

River: ($173) J (2 players)
Fnord ???

betting the turn puts you in a tough spot on river. since he only has $100 left in the $170 pot, i would just put him in because i wouldn't want to check fold to the small bet.

Originally Posted by gabe

betting the turn puts you in a tough spot on river.

With the A turned, I'm not at all woried about the nut flush draw. I'm leaning towards putting this guy on a weak over-pair (with maybe a heart) or set. Easy value-bet.

I put him for his last 100. You're 96% likely to be ahead (rough estimate) and that's really a good river card - he can call with anything and make the excuse that he figured you were stealing a split pot, or if he has a small heart, even believe he might somehow win. It seems like if he'd call another 50, he may as well call for all of it.

40/50 ish ? give him a chance to call?
or commit suicide

Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm leaning towards putting this guy on a weak over-pair (with maybe a heart) or set. Easy value-bet.

you really think he is just calling with a set or overpair on this flop?

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm leaning towards putting this guy on a weak over-pair (with maybe a heart) or set. Easy value-bet.

you really think he is just calling with a set or overpair on this flop?

does it explain why he calls on the turn?

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm leaning towards putting this guy on a weak over-pair (with maybe a heart) or set. Easy value-bet.

you really think he is just calling with a set or overpair on this flop?

Scary board, see a turn, get another bet out of me, see what the 3rd guy is up to. The full table chaps are a tamer sort.

Originally Posted by Fnord

The full table chaps are a tamer sort.

i dont think about this enough when i reply to threads in this forum

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Fnord

The full table chaps are a tamer sort.

i dont think about this enough when i reply to threads in this forum

We're also dealing with a game where the middle/top of the food chain is NL50-NL100 graduates.

Originally Posted by Fnord

With the A turned, I'm not at all woried about the nut flush draw. I'm leaning towards putting this guy on a weak over-pair (with maybe a heart) or set. Easy value-bet.

If you think the turn is an easy value bet, then I don't see any reason why the river shouldn't be an easy value push. I like a turn check here though, but I respect your read.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

If you think the turn is an easy value bet, then I don't see any reason why the river shouldn't be an easy value push. I like a turn check here though, but I respect your read.

My read here isn't strong enough to get off the hook that easy. Why would I check this turn to an opponent who I don't think gets out of line? A bet is going to get called by a lot of hands. A check might induce a bet, but gives him control of the pot size.

this spot kinda sucks, but I think I'd push and cry when he calls and turns over .

I assume that you aren't getting away from this hand if you check and he bets (any amount), so you might as well get it in first. His calling range is undoubtedly much bigger then his betting range here.

Lukie,

What's your turn play and why?

bet for value, with the assumption that most people don't know how to play poker and are capable of paying me off with a worse hand.

Also to force them into a mistake if they have a set, 2p, etc. See above.

Originally Posted by Lukie

bet for value, with the assumption that most people don't know how to play poker and are capable of paying me off with a worse hand.

Also to force them into a mistake if they have a set, 2p, etc. See above.

Sure sounds sexy when you say it, but seriously, would you fold a set to my turn bet (assuming you smooth called the flop...)?