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 Originally Posted by gabe
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
I'm I the only one in this thread that thinks this play isn't terrible? Probably why only 7% of all players are long term losers.
lol
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Against a tight player I like the turn push. If he folds more than 47% of the time, it's profitable.
where did you get the figure 47% from ? the pot is abuot $70, and the villian has $100 behind, which hero covers. it needs to work alot more than 47% to be profitable.
That should say 'winners'.
I screwed up the math. The pot before villian bets on the river is 74. Then he bets 20, making it 94. So he is risking $100 to win $94. He needs to fold 52% of the time to make this break even. This is how you calculate
(amount we win) - (amount we lose) = for break even it should equal 0
(x*94) - (y*100) = 0
94x = 100y
0.94x = y
we also know x+y=1 therefore y = 1-x
y = the probability we lose
x = the probability we win
1.94x=1
x=51.546%
Therefore he needs to fold more than 51.54% to make this +EV.
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