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 Originally Posted by nutsinho
I had no read that he was a donk. Whats the EV of trying to push a player who appears solid off a flush here?
Peaty, again good analysis. Obviously the whole hand played out on reads, and I was very sure that he had a flush based on his river bet rather than a boat. Given the action, a naked 9 or 3 makes very little sense. K9 or quads make sense, but why then is he betting only 27% of the pot on the river? It seems he would try to get more value out of it than that. So basically he's got to fold 47% of the time, and I'd seen nothing donkish from him so I thought it was a good push.
sorry, should be 52%... screwed up the pot size the first time I calculated it. But it doesn't change too much. It still comes down to him having to fold about half the time, which is read dependant. It is high variance as I have said before, but still may be +EV.
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