[quote=Miffed22001]
Quote Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Quote Originally Posted by "Miffed22001
Can we buy these pots with this line often enough to make it worth the effort against the standard player is i think what im trying to say.
becuase salsa's opinion of calling this a lot and folding it a little scares me

Most of the time I say, no. Based on my analysis earlier in the thread he needs to fold over half the time to break even. I don't think the 'standard' player does this. I've seen flushes pay off boats far to often on these kinds of boards. Hell... I've paid off a pair of sevens with a bluff, on a board like this. That is why I stopped making plays like this one on the river. I only make it against a player that knows where the fold button is.

If you bet it, they will call.
if youre telling me that piratepeaty (and i have no idea who you are other than you come with a good reputation) then im happy with that and this line aint good.
I was under the assumption anyway that their are too many players who like flushes too much anyway, thats not a criticism btw salsa! i just wondered if anyone shared the same thoughts and hence bluffing them out once in a while was really worth the effort.
Firstly it's not because I like flushes too much. In this hand I could have AA or KK and it wouldn't matter so much.

I think the best I can do is to go with gabe's formulation. Something just doesn't seem right.

In this particular game (stakes and players) the 3-bet represents to me is probably top pair, flush draw, set, each 30% and air (mid or bottom pair, gutshot, total air) about 10%...

I think it's the turn check behind. With my call I've shown that I'm likely to be holding a flush draw. If I had a set then I'm thinking "OMG JACKPOT! flush card completes my hand!" I am not checking behind on 4th street. The size of my bet might vary but if I think u got a flush and I have a better hand I am not slow playing (what's the point of slow playing such a hand?) So when you check I take off 99 and 33 from my ist of possible hands. As I said, I think villain's flop play suggests 9x and 3x is unlikely. So the only hand that is consistent with the play on flop, turn and river is K9. Well, if he has that then so be it...

To summarize, here is why I would call if I was the guy with the flush:

1. Opponent's play to me over all streets is on some street inconsistent with a hand that beats me (KK raises pre-flop, 99 and 33 doesn't check the turn, 3x and 9x either folds pre-flop or doesn't go crazy on that flop, 3x might not go crazy on that river, and K9 well I'll just pay it off).

edit: actually the more I think about it, the more mysterious this whole line looks to me. If villain had a bigger flush or KQ or TT or 88 or something like that which had showdown value why would he push this river?

2. I have a decent hand myself. When combined with (1) and I just don't have the ability to really put my opponent on something, the fact I got a flush means I wanna show it down.

3. I only have to be correct a third of the time to come out ahead.

Out of curiosity, step in villain's shoes. Facing the play over the whole hand what do *you* put the raiser on?