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 Originally Posted by salsa4ever
Out of curiosity, step in villain's shoes. Facing the play over the whole hand what do *you* put the raiser on?
Interesting question. He called a min-raise, in position, pre-flop, so that doesn't narrow down his hand range at all really, except that the lack of a re-raise means he probably does not have AA, KK, or QQ. He fired in the second raise on the flop - that usually means at least top pair good kicker, and more often two pair or a set. Based on that we could give him one of these hands: AK, KQ, maybe KJ; K9, K3, 93; 99, 33. One outside possibility is getting cute with a combo draw like Qc Jc.
He checked behind on the turn when a three hit - and the three is significant for two reasons: it pairs the board and it puts a possible flush out there. Literally any one of the previously listed hands could check behind there hoping to either get a cheap showdown (AK, KQ, KJ, K9) or induce a river bluff, or flush value bet (K3, 99, 93, QcJc, and especially 33).
On the river he raises all in against a pretty transparent value/blocking bet from a made flush. AK/KQ/KJ would probably not even dream of doing this. K9, 99, 93, and 33 definitely would. It would be pretty strange with a made flush no matter how high.
Personally I would put the hero on a boat or quads, and fold my flush without a backward glance.
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