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3000 Hands. Results Less Than Expected

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  1. #1

    Default 3000 Hands. Results Less Than Expected

    Total Hands 3135
    VP$P - 19.07
    VP$SB - 41.25
    Fold SB to Steal - 61.54
    Folded BB to Steal - 51.85
    Att. to Steal Blinds - 26.06
    Won $ WSF% - 35.68
    BB/100 Hands - 1.58
    BB/Hr- 0.93
    Went to SD% - 33.59
    Won $ at SD - 56.20
    PF Raise % - 7.15
    SD- 14.6599bb/100 hands or 12.1797bb/hr
    Post Flop AF- 1.73

    Where do you see problems?

    Now on the surface I think these numbers look like a pretty solid player. The Went to SD percentage I think is a bit high yet my W$atSD is well over 50%.
    What's the problem?

    While reading some old posts in a players blog where this person said:

    According to a post by Mason Malmuth a good player, on the internet, should make 3BB/100 Hands.
    the Standard Deviation for 60 Hands should be 12.5BB or 20.83BB/100 Hands


    Even before I read this I was shooting for 3bb/100 hands. I always thought this was reasonable but my numbers are far below this. I decided to look at my hands on Poker Tracker using different filters and found the following:

    Suited Connectors

    Not counting AKs and KQs these hands are minus 18bb. I have had QJs dealt 10 times and NEVER won with them.

    Other Notables

    KJs dealt 9 times 22.2 win % minus 11bb

    KTs dealt 7 times 28,57 win % minus 4.75bb

    QTs dealt 11 times 27.27 win % minus 6bb

    99 minus 13bb

    Checking my position stats I see something that jumps out at me. The total profit is $49.50 but in the BB I am down an astonishing $73!!!

    I have recently tightened up my starting hands. Look likes I need to go even further. needless to say suited connectors less than KQs are going to the muck pile. That was the one that shocked me the most. That and the losses I am taking in the BB.

    Any comments or opinions are greatly appreciated.
  2. #2
    First you can do a search on here for other players poker tracker stats. One thing you will notice is that 3000 is really small sample. Variance is going to be a big factor over 3000 hands. 10,000 hands is a good place to start paying attention to those stats, but that is small sample also.

    To Comment on your numbers:
    VP$P is OK depends on your style -- alot of people at a little tighter around 17%
    Won $ at SD is good
    the biggest thing you may want to work on is Post Flop AT = 1.73 Try to get that over 2 and higher.

    Don't get lost in the stats, you don't have enough hands played. But I recommend you do a search on here for Poker Tracker stats. See what others hand and their comments.

    Looks like you on the right track ---- Good luck
  3. #3
    Gatlin Dan's Avatar
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    Nov 2004
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    What limits are you playing?

    This sample size is small. Don't worry about your BB/100 yet. As long as your other stats are within acceptable range, the BB/100 will come around. I don't really expect to win 10% of the pots I play with QJs, if it is not heads-up. Hands like these take a long long time to show a profit in poker tracker. All the suited connectors and one gappers do.

    Most of your stats look good. Get your PFR% up. Mine is low, but still a little hgher than that. Your AF is low too. Get your aggression factor up by raising more on the turn and force yourself to value bet the river at every opportunity. Raising the later streets raises your AF, and directly affects your bb/100.

    Finally, replay the hands that you know should have a +EV but don't. Look first at AKo and AKs. Are they in the red? This was a big leak for me, overplaying these. Find the hands you are losing with that are winning hands and see if you should have played them differently. Adjust as necessary, but again don't get too concerned. Your sample size is incredibly small and could be easily chocked up to a cold run of cards.

    "A lot of fortunes are made on what you don't play."--"Miami" John Cernuto

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