How would you play this set of 10's?

Long time lurker/first time poster. I owe this site a big thanks for making me a profitable player from day one (been playing about 9 months).

This is a hand from live play at $1/$2 NL at Foxwoods this weekend. I've been second guessing my play all day.

I was at a table full of average players plus two guys that were clearly stronger than the rest of us. I am one of four big stacks with about 4-5x the buy-in. Everyone else had $100 buy-in or less.

My opponent in the hand was a very skilled player with a stack equal to mine of about $400. He is a very aggressive player who is pretty loose pre-flop and extremely skilled post-flop.

My table image is tight and aggressive. I've only shown down three hands and I had pocket QQ each time helping me get to 4x buy-in.

Pre-flop:
Opponent raises $15 from early position. One other big stack and one small stack call, and I call with pocket 10's in late position. I'll note that pre-flop raises are simply not respected at Foxwoods. Most people will not consider folding until the raise gets above $20. Additionally, $15 was not a whole lot considering 3 big stacks involved in the hand.

Flop ($60 pot):
Q-10-9 with two diamonds.

Everybody checks to me and I bet $50. I considered slow playing for a millisecond but with the diamond draw and multiple straight draws, I was not going to give away any free cards with middle set.

The original raiser calls and the others fold.

Turn ($160 pot):
Edit: 4 clubs

Original raiser checks again and it is on me.

Three questions:
1) What do you think of my bet on the flop?

2) What do you think opponent has?

3) What is your move?

I'll post the play of the hand and my thinking after some responses.

Thanks for any advice.

Edit: Thanks bair for pointing out my omission.

you didnt post what the turn was. and i'd consider pushing on the flop with that board.

Sorry, turn was four of clubs

ok my analysis:

that flop is just WAY too draw heavy for my liking. I either put out a huge huge overbet of like $100 or just push. I want the pot right there. He raised from early position so i dont think he has KJ, but if he does then that was just a miracle hand for him and you are going to lose your stack every time this happens no matter what, its just something you have to accept. same with if he has QQ. the turn was pretty damn harmless, pushing here is nice too. im assuming you lost this hand or you wouldnt post it, but i have a feeling the result is just a bad beat that you had no control over. if he has KJ or QQ then he can have my stack every time in this situation, but im pushing every time either on the flop or the turn. i'd put him on a pair with a flush draw.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bair

ok my analysis:

that flop is just WAY too draw heavy for my liking. I either put out a huge huge overbet of like $100 or just push. I want the pot right there. He raised from early position so i dont think he has KJ, but if he does then that was just a miracle hand for him and you are going to lose your stack every time this happens no matter what, its just something you have to accept. same with if he has QQ. the turn was pretty damn harmless, pushing here is nice too. im assuming you lost this hand or you wouldnt post it, but i have a feeling the result is just a bad beat that you had no control over. if he has KJ or QQ then he can have my stack every time in this situation, but im pushing every time either on the flop or the turn. i'd put him on a pair with a flush draw.

---

:!:

I put him on AJ type of hand. I think AQ would have reraised, but given the preflop raise, I think AJ is appropriate. If he flopped the straight he would likely have bet the turn to somehow build the pot up. It just seems like he fishing for something. I think you have the best hand for sure, it's just a question of for how long.

huh; every time this has happened to me lately, the other guy has gotten a straight. Never a flush, but always the straight. :P

Come the turn and checked to me, I bet the pot. If he calls, well damn. We'll see what the river brings; hopefully it pairs the board. HOnestly, I can't believe that you're behind at this point.

He might have KJ, but I sincerely doubt it. I put him on an overpair like KK that jsut does NOT want to let go of this pot, or else an open ended straight flush draw like AJ diamonds. Hell, any hand with teh jack of diamonds might be doing the same thing he's doing.

Did you see how he was betting his draws? I'd imagine from your description that he'd bet AdJd as it's a tasty draw... it depends on how he was betting stuff. If he's as aggressive and tricky as you say, he could be taking you for a ride.

Flop bet is okay... I'd consider overbetting the pot. If he re-raises all in, I'd seriously think about pushing. But as you give him a lot of credit as a player, I'd think that he picked up on your style of play and knows that you probably don't move in on things that are weak.

My line on the turn would be to bet enough to block the draws if you think he could be drawing - 3/4 of the pot. If you get raised, I'd consider laying it down. At that point, I'd think he's got a made hand.

I'm calling a made hand. Not QQ, as he probably would have bet the flop harder to get the draws out.

You need to slow it down here and figure out if he is on the draw or
has a hand (or both).

The $50 bet on the flop is good (almost pot sized). He could be playing
a range of hands here.

When he checks to you I would lean towards a draw. With the pot already at $160 I would consider betting $80 on the turn.

I would bet close to pot size ($120+) on the turn so that he doesnt have odds to draw to the straight or flush, if he calls that then I will give him credit for a made hand. He could have called on the flop with a draw because of the implied odds, but I doubt if he will call the much bigger bet on the turn with just a draw if he knows what hes doing. Im trying to think what type of hand he could slowplay here and there isn't really any except maybe KdJd. If he makes this play with QQ then he is either very stupid or very brave.

Bet 125. Op has AQ/AJ possibly nut diamond draw. You want a call.

-'rilla

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lowBoy

Did you see how he was betting his draws? I'd imagine from your description that he'd bet AdJd as it's a tasty draw... it depends on how he was betting stuff.
.

---

I agree with low boy, if this guy had a really tasty draw, he probably would've tried to do something fancy with it, and the only thing i could see him having if at all a draw it a super draw such as AJ of d.

But if he had the nut straight then he would want to protect it against the flush on the flop right? maybe not so..... he either has my guess is KJ or he has a low suited connector such as 8d7d.

Thanks for all the great replies. I pushed all-in and he went into the tank, finally folding and showing two red jacks. I had him on AJ so he actually had two more outs than I thought.

The reason I am second guessing is because I don't think I maximized my hand. My other line of thought would have been to throw out a callable $100 bet as some of you have suggested but I decided to push the turn for several reasons:

1) I don't think he had K-J for the made straight as I think he would have re-raised the flop. I didn't consider KdJd as Arkana pointed out. That would have been dangerous with the redraw to the K-flush and I definitely would have lost my stack.

2) He might have read my severe over bet as a bluff though with my tight table image, probably not.

3) I felt he was a better player than me and didn't want to be faced with a tough decision. If I threw out a $100 bet, what would I do if he re-raised me all-in and tried to take my pot away by repping K-J? I didn't want him playing back at me and putting me to a tough decision so I just decided to take it down.

4) Finally, it was getting near the end of my trip and I didn't want to price him in and let him draw me out. (I know it is short term thinking but it was my first time in a casino playing poker and I wanted to finish with a nice win.)

well...you made him fold his draw after a 4-way 15 dollar pfr and a 50 dollar bet on the flop. if you let him see the river and he catches, you just lost the money you couldve had by playing the way you did play. i'll take the for sure money rather than getting outdrawn and losing it all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DownLowHo

Thanks for all the great replies. I pushed all-in and he went into the tank, finally folding and showing two red jacks. I had him on AJ so he actually had two more outs than I thought.

The reason I am second guessing is because I don't think I maximized my hand. My other line of thought would have been to throw out a callable $100 bet as some of you have suggested but I decided to push the turn for several reasons:

1) I don't think he had K-J for the made straight as I think he would have re-raised the flop. I didn't consider KdJd as Arkana pointed out. That would have been dangerous with the redraw to the K-flush and I definitely would have lost my stack.

2) He might have read my severe over bet as a bluff though with my tight table image, probably not.

3) I felt he was a better player than me and didn't want to be faced with a tough decision. If I threw out a $100 bet, what would I do if he re-raised me all-in and tried to take my pot away by repping K-J? I didn't want him playing back at me and putting me to a tough decision so I just decided to take it down.

4) Finally, it was getting near the end of my trip and I didn't want to price him in and let him draw me out. (I know it is short term thinking but it was my first time in a casino playing poker and I wanted to finish with a nice win.)

---

You probably didn't maximize the amount of money you made on your 10s. Unless the other player slowplayed the nut straight (which I would not expect, given the flush draw on the board) you were most likely the winner here.

However, given your discomfort with your opposition, I think you made the right or close to right move. As you said, you did not know what you would do if he re-raised you, if he flat called, etc. Being the aggressor, you had two ways to win: him folding, or you showing down the best hand. That increased your odds to win this pot to over 50% I would say, just by reading what you had to say about this player.

Best move EVER? No. But a decent move, especially when you feel the opposition is a better player? Yep.