This is why you don't try to make sense of a fish's bet.

I thought for sure I had this donkey's stack, then I find out this is how he bets his two pair for value. WTF?

PokerStars Game #2561185946: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2005/09/12 - 19:50:10 (ET)
Table 'Iphigenia IV' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: dsaxton ($264.60 in chips)
Seat 2: Bjolle ($262 in chips)
Seat 3: Titleist02 ($197.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Azazel222 ($118.35 in chips)
Seat 5: u d floyd ($79.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Czeck1 ($77.75 in chips)
Titleist02: posts small blind $1
Azazel222: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dsaxton [Jd Ac]
u d floyd: folds
Czeck1: folds
dsaxton: raises $6 to $8
Bjolle: folds
Titleist02: folds
Azazel222: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Kc 6c 7s]
Azazel222: checks
dsaxton: bets $12
Azazel222: calls $12
*** TURN *** [Kc 6c 7s] [5s]
Azazel222: checks
dsaxton: checks
*** RIVER *** [Kc 6c 7s 5s] [Jh]
Azazel222: bets $98.35 and is all-in
dsaxton: calls $98.35
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Azazel222: shows [Jc 7c] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
dsaxton: mucks hand
Azazel222 collected $234.70 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $237.70 | Rake $3
Board [Kc 6c 7s 5s Jh]
Seat 1: dsaxton mucked [Jd Ac]
Seat 2: Bjolle (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Titleist02 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Azazel222 (big blind) showed [Jc 7c] and won ($234.70) with two pair, Jacks and Sevens
Seat 5: u d floyd folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Czeck1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Hmmm, is this a fish or a lagg shark that took a shot at you? Looks pretty tight (skillfully speaking) to me on an uncoordinated board. He puts you on something and pushes bro. I see this kind of thing at higher limits. People love to send red flags up by looking like they're bluffing when they have you.

Lagg sharks don't always bet for value, if they think there's any chance you call large for any reason (such as you think he's bluffing and you have a piece). Lesson learned.

If he value bets 20$ and you call 50% of the time, he wins 10$ per hand.

If he bets 100$ and you call 10% of the time thinking its a bluff or if you caught a piece, he wins 10$ per hand.

If he thinks you'll call a value bet less than half the time, or thinks you'll call a bluff-looking push more than 10% of the time, this play is EV for him.

I had a similar experience where a guy filled up a boat on the river that made me a set. I have A2 in the BB. Flop is 62x. Check check. Turn is some card. Check check. River is another two. Villain pushes...I call with my set top kicker, he flips 66 for a boat. Never thought someone would make that play with the close to nuts, thought he was bluffing on having a two or that he actually had the other two and a worse kicker. I learned my lesson.

Be very careful of this play, unless you've seen really weird bluffs or fishy actions that made less sense from an EV stand point, it might be a move.

It does look like a bit of a busted draw, but middle pair isn't enouhg for me to call that.

As for your opp's move, thats a pretty bad play, cause its a great way to fold out top pair and only get another two pair to call you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Hmmm, is this a fish or a lagg shark that took a shot at you? Looks pretty tight (skillfully speaking) to me on an uncoordinated board. He puts you on something and pushes bro. I see this kind of thing at higher limits. People love to send red flags up by looking like they're bluffing when they have you.

Lagg sharks don't always bet for value, if they think there's any chance you call large for any reason (such as you think he's bluffing and you have a piece). Lesson learned.

---

Well, I made an obvious show of weakness on the turn. He can't imagine that I can possibly call this bet.

Trust me, this guy was not a shark. I asked him why in the world he would overbet so much and all he said was "I was looking for a flush and made two pairs." That was his explanation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Well, I made an obvious show of weakness on the turn. He can't imagine that I can possibly call this bet.

---

Which is why someone would push all in on you. With little chance for value, might as well take a shot. If you push, and your opponent folds, then you probably weren't getting anything worth your time anyway.

PokerPatNEU explained it perfectly. Listen to what he said, and use it yourself.

I'm not saying this guy was definately a shark, but it was certainly a shark like move. Someone who knows the numbers, and manipulates image. Speaking of image, you have to also see the big picture. That being ALL the benefits of a certain move. For a shark, this push with little chance of a call right after sitting down at a table sets up a somewhat crazy image for him.

If you've never sat at a 200NL table with a guy who pushes all in a lot, and always seems to be bluffing and busting people, then this is what it is. He gets his superior reads, and pushes on two unique occassions... when he knows you can't call and he has nothing, and when he has you beat and you might call.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Trust me, this guy was not a shark. I asked him why in the world he would overbet so much and all he said was "I was looking for a flush and made two pairs." That was his explanation.

---

Think about what he said. He was hoping you put him on the broken draw, and when he caught a hidden hand he pushed. Very smart.

I still think you got OWNED

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Trust me, this guy was not a shark. I asked him why in the world he would overbet so much and all he said was "I was looking for a flush and made two pairs." That was his explanation.

---

Think about what he said. He was hoping you put him on the broken draw, and when he caught a hidden hand he pushed. Very smart.

I still think you got OWNED

---

That isn't what he said. He just said he was chasing a flush and made two pair. That's all. I think you're attributing to him a kind of thinking that just didn't happen.

Anyways, that doesn't matter. From his perspective, I probably have nothing, and even if I do have something, he has no reason to suspect that I'm willing to call an all-in bet with less than jacks and sevens in this situation. In general, a random opponent is not going to make this call on the river, so the bet doesn't really make sense. A random opponent is only going to call an all-in bet with a hand better than jacks and sevens. If he'd known how I'd interpret his play, and that I'd be willing to call with a weak hand, then maybe this makes sense, but not otherwise.

Plus, if I had nothing on the turn, I probably still had nothing on the river since it was a jack and he had a jack in his hand, which makes it even likelier that I don't even have a pair.

I like the play actually. His read is that if the river helped you it may have helped you enought to call his push. If it didn't help you, you are folding to any bet and perhaps will get ticked off with him enough to give him a little more action later. So he gambled that you picked up something with the river and are loose enough to make the call.

I'll sometimes try this move if I put my opp on overcards and have slowplayed a set. If a big card falls on the river and I'm OOP I can sometimes de-stack them when they hold TPTK.

Very interesting hand...And like others have mentioned he doesn't really follow the rule of the fish. Tough way to go down bro. Keep your chin up and learn from it.