unimproved KK 100NL I push on river in LP

I hadn't been paying the closest of attention to this table. I knew that moller was a maniac especially after I rebluffed him allin and took $40 off his stack and showed the bluff :) Anyways, I felt like P&J was on AQ. I don't really know why, but it just seemed like the way he was check-calling, he was on AQ and might not let go.

If he had a set or better I am almost positive he would have bet the river if not check-minraise the turn. Thats how they do it with a monster. Check-call, check-call, BET. Plus I was playing a little on the loose aggressive side and people were starting to play back at me. What do you think? Am I losing a value bet against top pair or am I destacking them? I think I could also be up against a passively played 2pair. Those pussies always do that.


Table Washington, 29 Oct 2005 1:24 PM ET
Seat 2: joocke ($159.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Bullseye_ ($91.50 in chips)
Seat 4: P&J ($85 in chips)
Seat 6: SlappinYaUp ($148.70 in chips)
Seat 8: mollerup ($69.50 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Bullseye_ posts blind ($0.50), P&J posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP

SlappinYaUp gets [ KH,KD ]

SlappinYaUp bets $4, mollerup folds, joocke folds, Bullseye_ folds, P&J calls $3.

FLOP [board cards 3S,6D,QD ]
P&J bets $5, SlappinYaUp bets $15, P&J calls $10.

TURN [board cards 3S,6D,QD,7S ]
P&J checks, SlappinYaUp bets $15, P&J calls $15.

RIVER [board cards 3S,6D,QD,7S,10H ]
P&J checks, SlappinYaUp bets $100

I think a value bet of around $20-25 is a much better line. The overbet here is one of those situations where you're probably only getting called if you're beat. Unless my opponent is someone that can't lay down TPTK, even in the face of a monster bet, I simply value bet the river. Additionally, if he in fact is slowplaying a monster and going for the check raise, you can typically get away if you just value bet. The overbet commits you though.

Even if on the river the pot is bigger than his remaining stack?

I usually check behind here because I like to keep hands like these with small pots. Just trying out playing some big pots with hands like these today.

Nothing you beat calls that river bet. My guess is that he missed his draw and was check-folding the river.

Bet more on the turn - nevermind implied odds, a flush draw nearly had pot odds.

mj

I could see queens, although a flush draw is another strong possibility. I don't like your bet though - I agree with the opinion that most of the time, you only get called by a better hand. This particular idiot (if he is such) may pay you off often enough to make up some ground, but in general I think that huge bet is a -EV proposition. $20 is an appropriate value bet/

He had AQ and paid me off. In the heat of the moment I felt like a poker mastermind, but looking back that was just results-thinking. I have to agree with you guys though. Glad I have you all to keep me in line!

What about pushing the turn here? AQ may call, thinking you trying a sembluff move on him (for example AsKs would make sense). This thinking may aswell trigger JJ to call (i've seen this many times in NL100). Even a flushdraw may call here (again AsKs).

What do you guys think?

gotta try a value bet to allow him to call with the queens if thats what he has

I may be a bit biased but considering the PF action and his actions afterwards AQ is more than likely. OR he has a set. Anyways he has about $50 left so a value bet of $25 or so would be good but you still should consider putting him AI because of your table image. If you have been the LAgg everybody is starting to play back and you make a massive overbet aka. busted AK on river he just might call you with AQ. but does that happen twice as often as calling the $25? Therein lies the question here.

I have started to see the importance of table image in short handed games because it sure is easier to notice other playeres tendencies when there are only 5-6 players at the table. Playing Lagg, although only in position may put a lot of guys off their kilter.

He should have found out where he way right on the flop, playing it like that is bs.

On the whole, I think people check the river way to much and lose some real value. If you got a read, dare to go with it!