UB 5.50, drawing at 15 outs twice...

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11-07-2005, 10:40 AM
A10Chief

UB 5.50, drawing at 15 outs twice...

Here's a hand from my latest debacle. I had 15 outs as I saw it, although the possibility exists that BB could have higher diamond flush draw or UTG could be betting top pair with a higher flush draw. Nonetheless, I'm getting ~2:1 after the flop and better than 3:1 after the turn. I had already lost a with a set to a higher set, so I was hurting for chips. I felt like this was an opportunity to get back in it before the blinds got too big. It just didn't work out for me. Should I have just dumped this to the flop bet? BTW, I know a lot of you will say I should have dropped it preflop, but with a hand like this, I felt like paying half price to see a flop (got the flop I was looking for) was an acceptable play.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB (t1410)
UTG (t1355)
UTG+1 (t1600)
MP1 (t2405)
MP2 (t1395)
CO (t2115)
Button (t4020)
Hero (t700)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:diamond:, J:diamond:.
UTG calls t20, 4 folds, Button calls t20, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t80) T:club:, 6:diamond:, 9:diamond: (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t90, Button folds, Hero calls t90, BB calls t90.

Turn: (t350) 4:spade: (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t150, Hero calls t150, BB folds.

River: (t650) A:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t650, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1300
11-07-2005, 11:19 AM
AHiltz

IF you think that the BB will ONLY call after y0u call on the flop AND that you will get paid off IF you hit, then fine. You have many issues to deal with in this hand. One of the worst is the fact that you are cold calling twice with a potential raiser behind you.
11-07-2005, 11:51 AM
gabe

i push over his weak raise on the turn. if he calls, oh well, you have outs.
11-07-2005, 12:12 PM
Fortune 500

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

i push over his weak raise on the turn. if he calls, oh well, you have outs.

That's precisely how I'd play it.
11-07-2005, 12:14 PM
a500lbgorilla

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fortune 500

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

i push over his weak raise on the turn. if he calls, oh well, you have outs.

That's precisely how I'd play it.

That's precisely how I'd say that that is precisely how I'd play it.
11-07-2005, 02:15 PM
WildBobAA

Raise your draws if you're going to play them, don't call with them. Gives you 2 chances to win.
11-07-2005, 02:41 PM
A10Chief

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Raise your draws if you're going to play them, don't call with them. Gives you 2 chances to win.

Don't you bleed off a lot of chips this way when you miss?
11-07-2005, 03:15 PM
vqc

push the turn.
the pot is almost the size of ur stack.

can someoen give me a reason NOT to just open push the turn? Is a check/push better than push? Is it becuase you potentially pick off an extra bet and your going all in anyways in both cases?

I think I answered my own question but thoughts would be nice.
11-07-2005, 07:41 PM
konahead

If UTG has AT, you're not going to get him off the hand regardless, so pushing wouldn't necessarily help. Looks to me like Opp was betting just enough for you to call with a draw - bad odds but not too bad.

I think you played it fine with that many outs. Pushing isn't always the answer - sometimes conservatism is the better play...
11-07-2005, 08:20 PM
vqc

Quote:

Originally Posted by konahead

If UTG has AT, you're not going to get him off the hand regardless, so pushing wouldn't necessarily help. Looks to me like Opp was betting just enough for you to call with a draw - bad odds but not too bad.

I think you played it fine with that many outs. Pushing isn't always the answer - sometimes conservatism is the better play...

how many chips does he end this hand with?
and how strong are his draws here?

I dont think that conservatism is the right answer here by far.
11-08-2005, 01:00 AM
WildBobAA

Quote:

Originally Posted by A10Chief

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Raise your draws if you're going to play them, don't call with them. Gives you 2 chances to win.

Don't you bleed off a lot of chips this way when you miss?

Depends, it's not like I play every draw, I fold most of them. But if I do find a good time to play it then raising > calling always. Like the example here, that's a monster draw, you're the favorite over most hands.

You have to know when to play it strong and when to let it go.
11-08-2005, 01:13 AM
silverfist

EP with 14+ outs, I pretty much always do the same thing. I do a check-push. That way, three things will happen:

1) Everyone checks - yay, free card!
2) Someone bets, I push, everyone folds - yay, free chips!
3) Someone bets, I push, someone calls - I'm the favourite.

win-win-win.
11-08-2005, 02:09 AM
WildBobAA

Something no one mentioned, you might win if you hit your J so you might have 18 outs instead of 15
11-08-2005, 02:32 AM
Alibi

Quote:

you might win if you hit your J

Nay, you always win if you hit a J.
11-08-2005, 04:12 AM
Scuba Chuck

Re: UB 5.50, drawing at 15 outs twice...

Quote:

Originally Posted by A10Chief

BB (t1410)
UTG (t1355)
UTG+1 (t1600)
MP1 (t2405)
MP2 (t1395)
CO (t2115)
Button (t4020)
Hero (t700)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:diamond:, J:diamond:.
UTG calls t20, 4 folds, Button calls t20, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t80) T:club:, 6:diamond:, 9:diamond: (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t90, Button folds, Hero calls t90, BB calls t90.

Turn: (t350) 4:spade: (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t150, Hero calls t150, BB folds.

River: (t650) A:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t650, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1300

Preflop: good call

Flop: Ok, here's the critical point. Your hand is tremendously strong right now. In fact, assuming no one is drawing to a higher flush, you have 50% pot equity. And, if you're only up against a pair of tens, you likely have tremendous pot equity here, like 60%. But the real negative is that after UTG bets, there's only a small amount in the pot and our position sucks. If we had position, a raise to 250 here is the best move.

Another consideration here is stack sizes here really suck. So 170 chips in the pot are actually pretty precious. You should know that pushing right here isn't a bad move. And considering how shoddy your position is, your stack size, and turning into a calling station might be just bleeding chips, this might be your best move.

Anyhow, the play I like the most with these situations is trying to find a way to jam all your chips in on the flop.
11-08-2005, 12:19 PM
WildBobAA

Re: UB 5.50, drawing at 15 outs twice...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scuba Chuck

Anyhow, the play I like the most with these situations is trying to find a way to jam all your chips in on the flop.
11-08-2005, 12:44 PM
ProZachNation

I dunno if this is right, but I woulda pushed the flop and if I get a call then hey I am drawing to 15 outs....
In my opinion you dont have enough chips to play this pot and lose it and still be in the game. So on the flop you need to decide once he raises to 90 whether you want the pot or you dont want it. If you want it I think you need to push over the top and let the cards decide if he doesnt fold. If not fold and pick anohter hand.
11-08-2005, 01:06 PM
konahead

I didnt notice hero's stack size. That does make me lean more towards a flop push, perhaps - but with such a small pot - it's iffy. I still think I'd play it the same as he did if I think opp has AT and won't fold. Comes down to a read on whether I think I can get opp to fold. I'm not much on pushing with low draw hands...
11-09-2005, 05:34 AM
Scuba Chuck

Quote:

Originally Posted by konahead

I didnt notice hero's stack size. That does make me lean more towards a flop push, perhaps - but with such a small pot - it's iffy. I still think I'd play it the same as he did if I think opp has AT and won't fold. Comes down to a read on whether I think I can get opp to fold. I'm not much on pushing with low draw hands...

Dude, Kona, reconsider your thoughts. this is not a low draw hand. Plug this into a calculator. Particularly against AT. I wuold be surprised if our hero has less than 50% pot equity against AT.