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Strong draws
This is a situation that perhaps dont come up often but can be expensive when it does...
0.25/0.50 NL
You get dealt K3h in the big blind and check with 3 limpers and the flop comes 10h, Jh, Qs which gives you a straight and a flush draw with a total of 15 outs, the small blind check and you bet the pot, around 2$, a player in later position then raises the pot everybody folds to you...
you both have around 40$ left...
What do you do? (no read on player)
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Lets see, normally I love str8 and flsuh draw combos and will draw it out even to a pretty good size bet. But you could easily be looking at big slick and that would negate the value of the str8 end of the deal. So a 9 is pretty much not going to be a big help, and the A is probably gunna give u a split. So ur really playing for the flush here. 33% chance of flush w/ turn and river, so u have to ask yourself: "Do I feel Lucky?" If I could get 10:1 if I hit I dwould probably go for it. But since since u bet the pot and he raised the pot thats (4BB*2) the preflop
*2 your pot size bet
*2 his pot size raise
= $16 I think with $8 to you to call.
Hmmm, call $8 to win a $24 pot w/ 33% chance of win overall not counting turn and river bets. I think u might be -EV here. I hate to fold it so I'd prob call the $8 and then fold if no flush or A falls. That's just me, and I am still kind of fishlike at times.
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Don't push just straight or flush draws unless you feel like you can push someone off a hand. But with 15 outs any move is +EV on the flop. But for me unless I feel like I can push someone off a hand I'm going as cheap as possible.
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You have to try to make an objective evaluation of two things:
1. your fold equity - what range of hands do you put this guy on, and how likely is it, approximately, that he would fold those hands?
2. your clean outs - again looking at his range of hands, how many of your outs are actually outs?
(e.g. in this case if he has AK, KQ, KJ, KT - you don't have 15 clean outs. You have 9 outs, plus 6 outs to split the pot if he has any of those hands except AK, or 3 outs to split if he has AK)
If your fold equity is low or none, and your outs are not as many as you'd like, you call when the odds are there. Don't make the mistake of always assuming that a good-looking draw is the best possible semi-bluffing opportunity.
Now, if I think the guy might fold, and I know he probably has one pair, and I very likely have 15 clean outs, or even 12... I'm going to make the move.
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I try not to get into 50/50 positions if I dont hafto. With this flop there's a good shot your going to get heavy action from a 2 pair/set/small str8 protecting there hand on a draw heavy board.
I rather check-raise or check-call (depending on read) then open raise here.
Dont get me wrong, I'm all for open with draws, but not when there is a good shot I'm going to be put to the test.