Flop the nuts... table goes bonkers... fold?

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12-27-2005, 08:18 PM
bencathers

Flop the nuts... table goes bonkers... fold?

Flop the nuts and the table goes bonkers. 10th hand at the table and I have notes on the players from the previous hands.

Notes: SB is a lag who loves to raise suited cards, especially high suited connectors in any position

MP is a good 50 NL TAG who can fold high pocket and loves to protect sets.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($42.80)
MP ($53.85)
CO ($50.30)
Button ($10.60)
SB ($32.70)
Hero ($21.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T:heart:, J:diamond:.
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, MP calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 8:spade:, 9:diamond:, 7:spade: (4 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, UTG folds, MP raises to $15, SB raises to $30.7, Hero calls $10.15 (All-In), MP calls $15.70.

Turn: ($88.55) 3:spade: (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($88.55) 9:spade: (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $88.55
12-27-2005, 08:22 PM
Fnord

If you even think of folding then you're done for the day.
12-27-2005, 08:24 PM
Pelion

I suppose you could be getting freerolled (by SB?) but i still dont think i fold this. At my stakes there could be a set or 2 or maybe the low end of the straight. You could be up against low straight + flush draw from one guy and the other guy with a set if hes loose.

Hmmmm i think foldings for Omaha or wussies, not for this flop. I call.
12-27-2005, 08:52 PM
Miffed22001

why would you even consider folding teh nutz ever?
yeah you MIGHT get outdrawn
12-27-2005, 09:38 PM
p-i

From your notes I'm guessing MP shows quad 9's! Which is beaten when SB flips TsJs for a straight flush!

I wouldn't have folded that flop, though, even with the flush draw. You're putting your money in when you're ahead (65/35 vs. flush; 96/4 vs. quads or straight flush), let the cards fall where they may. Most of the time you win this.
12-27-2005, 10:16 PM
bencathers

Obviously I didn't fold (because who can really fold that)

But if my reads are correct and I'm against:
QsJs
9h9c

Then the numbers aren't very promising:
Jd Th 300 33.22 597 66.11 6 0.66 0.336
Qs Js 276 30.56 621 68.77 6 0.66 0.309
9c 9h 321 35.55 582 64.45 0 0.00 0.355

(twodimes.net poker calculator)

Playing this hand, with the cards face up, how do you play it?

Is this one situation where I'm flopping the nuts and behind?

Also, this is an automatic call because I buy in short to these games to gamble or play like a maniac and get a terrible table image (before buying in full and people not noticing). But if we're playing for stacks here (50-100) and its all in on the flop..
12-28-2005, 12:54 AM
Fnord

Having the nuts and getting the worse of it is cute, but with the way these games play, a hand you have destroyed like T:club: T:diamond: is also pretty likely. Simillarly, you can draw up a situation where AA is getting the worst of it pre-flop....
12-28-2005, 01:22 AM
WildBobAA

There are situations in omaha where it's correct to fold the nuts (in fact in specific situations, you can be heads up, flop the nuts, and be about 25% to win the hand) but I'd never do it in holdem.
12-28-2005, 01:25 AM
KoRnholio

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

There are situations in omaha where it's correct to fold the nuts but I'd never do it in holdem.

100% correct. Especially when there's only $10 left in our stack to call in that massive pot.
12-28-2005, 02:05 AM
bencathers

Oh with my stack size without a doubt. The discussion I was hoping to create was more based on a "what if" if playing for deep stacks between all... if all of us had 4x the buy in, surely AA/KK/TT wouldn't play the same?

But either way, interesting hand. For the results oriented, SB had 5h 6h and MP had 8h 9h and quickly jolted the table afterwards

SB tilted off the rest to me :twisted:
12-28-2005, 02:22 AM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by bencathers

But either way, interesting hand. For the results oriented, SB had 5h 6h and MP had 8h 9h and quickly jolted the table afterwards

That sounds about right.

You give people too much credit.
12-28-2005, 02:48 AM
WildBobAA

Just thought I'd post this because well, it's fun.

http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/5...ahaodds6mq.jpg
12-28-2005, 03:47 AM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

If you even think of folding then you're done for the day.
12-28-2005, 05:34 AM
joshuadzl

65/35 @ flop
78/22 @ turn

No question here, thats a edge I'll take.
12-28-2005, 07:10 AM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by bencathers

But if my reads are correct and I'm against:
QsJs
9h9c

Then the numbers aren't very promising:
Jd Th 300 33.22 597 66.11 6 0.66 0.336
Qs Js 276 30.56 621 68.77 6 0.66 0.309
9c 9h 321 35.55 582 64.45 0 0.00 0.355

That is very promising. At the very worst you are winning back 1/3 of a pot with 3 players in. Thats very nearly breaking even. Consider that you probably arent even up against those hands and you cant fold.
12-28-2005, 09:19 AM
dalecooper

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

That is very promising. At the very worst you are winning back 1/3 of a pot with 3 players in. Thats very nearly breaking even.

Don't forget that there is an existing pot before any money goes in on the flop. The flop action is a three way all in for (as far as the Hero is concerned) about $20. There's already a pot slightly in excess of $8. The three way all in, with both other players having you covered, means you're automatically getting 2:1 on your money even if there is zero money in the pot already - and 2:1 is plenty to call even if you KNOW you're up against the specific hands that would be a worst case scenario (QsJs and 99), because you're still about 2:1 against winning. With that $8 sitting there, this is a clear call.
12-28-2005, 10:11 AM
Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken
12-28-2005, 02:50 PM
joshuadzl

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken

shut up you dont even play poker yahtzee pro
12-28-2005, 05:26 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken

you must lose alot :p
12-28-2005, 07:28 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken

I'm not a very good omaha player, but this is a pretty terrible line of thinking.

Supppose you are playing holdem, preflop action: 3-way limp pot. Flop 9d Td 2s. Person 1 pushes all-in for 100BB (a bit of a stretch, but go with it). Person 2 folds. Person 1 mistakenly exposes his hole cards of Jd Qd. You are person 3 and look down at Ac Th. You cover. Do you call because you are currently ahead?
12-29-2005, 01:20 PM
Pelion

I think this is a very important point and perhaps one worthy of its own thread. The best hand isnt the hand which would win the pot if no more cards were delt. The best hand is the hand with the highest chance of winning the pot at the showdown.
If you are heads up with 0 money in the pot and a guy with face up cards goes all in for $100 with JdQd on a 9d Td 2s board and you hold Ac Th you may have the highest pair at the moment but you only have a 31% chance of winning the hand. Calling just because you have the "best hand" at the moment is a crazy play and will lose you alot of money in the long run. In holdem this doesnt happen very often. In Omaha it is crucial.
12-29-2005, 01:51 PM
SmackinYaUp

I have a hard time folding the nuts after waiting all day for em. If MP is that good the only hand he has is TJspades but I REALLY doubt it. If there's enough people in the pot some other drawing hands (including sets) could possibly be correct in calling, but you're correct for calling too. There is no way in hell to fold the nut straight. Even if he is freerolling, you still have the other guy' money to split which adds cushioning.
01-01-2006, 04:16 AM
aislephive

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken

In Omaha, there are a lot of times where it is correct to fold the nuts. This is especially true in PLO8 where even flopping the nut straight only gets you half the pot (assuming it holds up). Obviously this topic has kind of broadened, but even if we were talking about hold em there are a few situations where you would fold the best hand at the moment if you knew what the other guy had.

For example, let's say I hold KQ clubs and the flop is TTJ with two clubs. My opponent has 22 and is in the lead, but I can catch any ace, nine, king, queen, jack, club, or the board can double pair to make me a better two pair and I can win the hand. This is a bit of a stretch, but you get my point. Under the right cirumstances, as rare as they are, it is sometimes correct to fold the winning hand when you are an underdog to win the hand.
01-01-2006, 11:24 AM
Miffed22001

Quote:

Originally Posted by aislephive

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Ive seen that omaha hand and until im beat im never laying down a hand.
I got it all in the other day when opp had 20 something outs.Balls im folding my hand until its beat. It never GOT beat. Ill happily fold when im beat but until i am and i get odds im never ever folding.
While i admit this is a wild situation, odds are there a reason, they determine THE MOST LIKELY outcome, but not THE OUTCOME. If i flop teh nutz and it has 25% chance of holding damn right ill pay to see it get broken

In Omaha, there are a lot of times where it is correct to fold the nuts. This is especially true in PLO8 where even flopping the nut straight only gets you half the pot (assuming it holds up). Obviously this topic has kind of broadened, but even if we were talking about hold em there are a few situations where you would fold the best hand at the moment if you knew what the other guy had.

For example, let's say I hold KQ clubs and the flop is TTJ with two clubs. My opponent has 22 and is in the lead, but I can catch any ace, nine, king, queen, jack, club, or the board can double pair to make me a better two pair and I can win the hand. This is a bit of a stretch, but you get my point. Under the right cirumstances, as rare as they are, it is sometimes correct to fold the winning hand when you are an underdog to win the hand.

To be honest i totally agree. And yes you should. But it seems the same arguement to me as folding KK preflop. Can you really do it?
dont get me wrong though, i take the arguement and i can see the odds.
01-01-2006, 12:27 PM
Pelion

Its a totally different argument. With KK preflop there is a very small chance you are behind.

If you hold 22 on a TTJ board there is a huge chance you are behind.

In Omaha (especially 8 or better) where the nut hand is often held by 2 players you are foolish to play for stacks on a 2 flush flop board with the nut straight and no set and no flush draw when there is heavy betting. Your opponent is virtually telling you the best you are getting is half the pot.

In Texas holdem it is rare for 2 people to hold the current nuts and people will put alot of chips into the pot without the nuts so it is correct to call in the original example. In omaha people aren't nearly so inclined to bet without the nuts so it is often correct to fold the nuts with no redraws.
01-02-2006, 01:51 AM
The K1ngpin

Quote:

Originally Posted by dzl

65/35 @ flop
78/22 @ turn

No question here, thats a edge I'll take.

How did you get these numbers?