Blinds attack back! 200 NL full

I attempt to steal the blinds and face opposition when the guy makes a pot-sized bet into me on the flop. But ive hit top pair with decent kicker.. play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($206.20)
SB ($235.15)
BB ($286.55)
UTG ($263.45)
UTG+1 ($351)
UTG+2 ($200)
MP1 ($211.50)
MP2 ($131)
MP3 ($180)
CO ($201)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J:club:, Q:heart:. SB posts a blind of $1.
7 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($13) J:spade:, 2:diamond:, 3:heart: (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero ???

I'm interested to see how anyone might play this out.
I would generally reraise to see if he's just firing back after your blind steal attempt figuring you missed or had a pair less than J.
If he wants to play for stacks there I don't think I'm doing it with this hand.

Toughest part is you can't minraise - have to go $25 - $30 or so...at least if he pushes at you then you know you're beat or he's overplaying the hell outta something.

Call, If his bet shrinks on the turn I attack.

What if his bet stays the same size?
If a smart player is on a steal, I don't think he will ever bet smaller on subsequent streets because he'll know it's a sign of weakness.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caelis

What if his bet stays the same size?
If a smart player is on a steal, I don't think he will ever bet smaller on subsequent streets because he'll know it's a sign of weakness.

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he's not betting a set on that utterly unthreatening flop, so i can't have him on that.

i'd definitely raise 2.5x times his bet on the flop to find out where i'm @ in he hand. if he comes over the top then it's an easy lay--if not, then you've just taken down a neat pot w/o having to strain your brains over a scary turn card.

given preflop play, i'd probably say he's betting a middle pp since he's figuring you're not holding a jack. yes, there is a small chance that he's holding an op... but it's much better to find that out on the flop rather than cold-calling his bet & getting stuck into a large pot on the turn w/o any read.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caelis

What if his bet stays the same size?
If a smart player is on a steal, I don't think he will ever bet smaller on subsequent streets because he'll know it's a sign of weakness.

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True, but a bet of the same size on he turn(vs the pot) will be a very expensive way of stealing a small pot, something a smart player will realise. A call should slow him down a bit but, without reads, if he comes out heavy on the turn then I think I you can give credit to a hand and fold.

Ugh.. sticky situation here. Depending on the opponent, I can see logical arguments for calling, raising, or folding. As villain here, I can make this exact play with a set or 48o. Some opponents can only make this play with a big hand. Others overly protect their blinds in a ring game.

Against most, I raise this flop. If they come over the top, I'm out. If they call, I can be fairly certain that I'm beat, especially on this (basically) drawless board.

Against a rock, I think I just muck on the flop. If somebody usually needs a big hand to play like this, you are probably beaten and it will cost a lot to find out if you are or aren't.

Against someone who I see taking 1 shot at the pot on the flop, and giving up on the turn, I'd call, using my position as much as my hand. What they do on the turn is imperative.

Also, make a note in your head about what just happened after the hand. I find that the players on your immediate left (1 and 2 over) are the ones that affect you most, since all steals and all positional battles must go through them. I don't have a problem whatsoever raising QJo OTB when folded to you (I will raise with much worse, depending on who is sitting left of me), but if an agressive player is sitting on the left of you, I just muck this preflop and don't think twice about it. Undeniably though, hands like this can put you to some difficult decisions, even when you are first in OTB with agressioin and position.

raise
he just thinks either you dont have it or that youll fold.