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This was full ring but I'm dumping the misc hands as there was only 1 caller preflop.
Hero ($8.85)
CO ($6.25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with :Kh:, :Ks:.
Hero raises $0.50, x folds, CO calls $0.50, 3 folds.
Flop: ($1.15) :Qh:, :Jd:, :Ts: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.00, CO raises $4.75 (all-in), ...
Im calling this all day long. Small stakes, they could have anything.
Strip
You have 10 outs, so thats a 3:2 chance of hitting your set/straight. It's $3.75 to call a $6.75 pot, giving you 9:5 odds. 9:5<3:2=call.
Wait. 10 outs out of 47 cards is just over 1 in 5. 3.75 into a 6.75 pot would be putting in 3.75 to win 10.50, slightly under 3:1. With this calculation, without a specific read on the villain, easy fold. I assume villain holds a set, but AK and even 89s or 910s are not out of the realm of possibility. This would give us dead outs, not mention the outs villain has to improve to a boat, making it an easier fold.Quote:
Originally Posted by freechus9
Unless we're in a gambling mood, fold.
Ok - Villain held the JT offsuit - I assumed two pair with his allin and not a set or made straight...just a hunch/lucky guess. But since the small stakes idiots will do the same thing with A9o enough I pretty much had to call and pray.
So technically any Q,K,9 or A was an out to me - or runner runner pair. So that gives me about 12.5 outs making it a coinflip. Not the best situation - if I knew exactly what he had I might find a fold...but there are too many of these at 5c/10c that I'm still ahead or suck out to let it go here I think.
Obviously If the board was AJT, bye bye kings...but I think this was worth a gamble.
End board - turn was a blank - he hit another J on the end to get a FH that he didn't need. Biggest loss I've had in a while though so I can't complain.
There's 2 cards to come because the villain went all in on the flop.Quote:
Originally Posted by SonOfAkira
Also, you don't include the amount of the bet when you are comparing pot/bet ratio.
:oops: :shock:Quote:
Originally Posted by freechus9
Thanks for the correction, I hope I didn't sound antagonistic. I forgot about the AI when I started typing, two cards to come.
But the part about the pot/bet ratio is correct, no? I don't see what I miscalculated.
Well, basically, you are risking 3.75 in order to make a profit of 6.75. For example, using the way you described, betting 4 dollars into an empty pot would be a 1:1 ratio (betting 4 to win 4), whereas in actuality, you are betting 4 dollars in order to win nothing. See?
I think it's a matter of semantics. It can be phrased a number of different ways, 3.75 in to profit 6.75, 3.75 in to win a pot that will be 10.50. I agree the second is more confusing. I phrased it the same way you did as well. I couldn't figure out the problem for a second because I wasn't including the amount of the bet in comparing pot/bet ratio, then I noticed it was just a plain typo when I typed 3:1. I meant 'slightly under 2:1', 3.75 into a 6.75 pot, or the same as you stated 9:5.Quote:
Originally Posted by freechus9
But thanks calling attention to my oversight about the AI, I feel like a dunce when I miss something. With two streets to come it is a very good call to make.
call
call 2morrow
call next week
Thanks for the comments guys. I figured it was the right call...sets at my level tend to slowplay, and most people would at least think that I might have AK and not try to throw all their money in when behind with just two pair.
The pot (after his allin) was $7.90 (his calling my $1 plus plopping down the rest of his stack $4.75) so I was risking 4.75 to win $7.90 which is a little less than 2:1, when it was in fact a coinflip, but I have to bump up a 20% chance or so that he's bluffing with KQ/KJ/KT, A9/9T etc. which would have me ahead and make it a call all day for sure.