flop semi-bluff, follow up on turn

No reads, havn't played long. NL200 on BOSPoker. $200 effective stacks. Villain seems ok from what I've seen. I've played few hands and have taken a few pots without much of a fight. 78s is not in my normal range in this spot, not that villain knows this.

Villain raises to 4x from EP. Folds to me in LP I call with 78s. Hu to flop. 964 rainbow, I have a possible backdoor flush draw. ~$17 pot. Villain leads for $9, I make it $29 total. Villain calls. ~$75 pot. Turn Q putting 2 suits on my board which doesn't help me. Checks to me, I bet $45, can put him AI on river easily without overbetting. Villain calls. River blanks. check/check.

Thoughts?

all in

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

all in

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How do you play the rest of the hand? Advice on all streets is welcome. On the turn I was debating very hard whether to continue to rep a set and threaten his entire stack, or checking behind for the free card. When he called, I was quite sure he had KK-AA, and I think pushing the river would have been futile. We checked it, he flipped AA, and I'm 95% certain that he calls the river if I push.

The turn put 2 of suit on the board that wasnt your suit right? I lean heavily towards checking. I think if you do he will bet the river for you either you hit or not.

Hmmm
u raise the flop for a free card. Take it on the turn?
I suppose betting the turn is good if you play sets the same way, in which case he has to make a tough call on the river when u bet it on either a bluff or a real hand.
I like to play my big hands and draws in the same way so that if i decide to bluff on a missed draw it can look like i have a hand. Id show my opp both types of hand so he knows what im doing to. Going to get my bluffs picked off occasionally but get my sets/two pairs paid.
playing the turn and river is dependant imo on how you would play a big hand here

This is how I often play a set. Raise flop an amount where I can make a decent sized (not overbet) bet at the pot and get it all-in by the river.

While I didn't have a strong read on villain preflop, his line REALLY looked like KK/AA to me. The play on this site is notoriously poor, and I felt an all-in bluff on the river (even though I'd push a set) would clearly be -ev. Looking back, I should probably take the free card on the turn.

if u play sets the same, dont stop betting the turn imo, unless you are prepared to push a set on the river or push a bluff.
Again, letting opp know how and what ur playing is key to me here. If he knows you are capable of bluffing and/or pushing the nuts on the river his clling range is minute. big +ev imo for us.

Take the free turn card, although the $*&@ flop raise auto-calls sure make it tempting to fire the second barrel...

I like it. I probably would bet more on the turn though, something like $50-55, and if he calls that then I'm done with the hand unless I hit on the river. Checking the turn is okay, but if you were going to do that, then I like just calling the flop. Pushing this river is just suicide I think most times. Even at 200NL many players can't laydown AA/KK in this spot even to 3 barrels.

Another line you could take would be to smooth call the flop, then raise the turn. So say you call the $9 on the flop, and he bets out $20 on the turn. Raise to $55-60, and if you brick the river, a push will have a lot of fold equity with a bit less than one PSB left and using this line it is almost impossible for a decent thinking player to call you with an overpair here, as this line is so reminiscent of a set. This is a very risky line though, and I would only use it with a solid read, most times expecting a fold on the turn.

Like I mentioned above I don't mind a flop call here, and maybe even a turn call as well (depending on what he bets out), as you are almost certain to get paid off if you hit one of your draws, since it is so well disguised. But if the play is horrible like you said, then I wouldn't bother getting fancy in the first place.