AKs faces tough river decision

Whats your play here and why? Villain is solid player

***** Hand History for Game 3552326076 *****
$600 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, February 14, 04:52:58 EDT 2006
Table Table 66474 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: FourClover01 ( $769.35 )
Seat 3: Fattymunk ( $697.64 )
Seat 5: Evil_Ecstasy ( $588 )
Seat 6: sicktwrcntlr ( $661.57 )
Seat 7: chillysmile ( $365 )
Seat 8: Danielcerda ( $1047.30 )
Seat 10: feezey ( $781.28 )
Seat 4: AceKikker007 ( $517.80 )
Seat 2: glanatpar ( $573 )
sicktwrcntlr posts small blind [$3].
chillysmile posts big blind [$6].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Evil_Ecstasy [ Ad Kd ]
feezey folds.
FourClover01 folds.
glanatpar folds.
Fattymunk folds.
AceKikker007 calls [$6].
Evil_Ecstasy raises [$25].
sicktwrcntlr calls [$22].
chillysmile folds.
AceKikker007 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 9d, 8d ]
sicktwrcntlr checks.
Evil_Ecstasy bets [$45].
sicktwrcntlr calls [$45].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
sicktwrcntlr checks.
Evil_Ecstasy checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
sicktwrcntlr bets [$150].
Evil_Ecstasy ???

Don't run obvious c-bet lines against him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Don't run obvious c-bet lines against him.

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So what are you suggesting?

So, to summarize: You have the Nut flush on a double paired board facing a pot sized river bet which represents 1/3 of your stack against a solid player in the SB who cold-called your PFR and Cont. Bet.

You're scared and showing it on the turn. so he can peg you on AK easily.
River is the perfect scare card. You say villian is solid which means he has that read on you for sure. Would he buy a pot like this on a scary board without anything, but knowing what you have? Absolutely. Would he have played a 9 like this? Not likely unless he was a "tricky" solid player... What about a T?

I think this is a Crying Call as played...

I think Fnord is saying that checking behind on the flop wouldn't have been such a bad play here... Would've given him less reason to make a play on you, and you can control the pot size a little more. C-bet the turn to see what he's got!

Bet more everywhere. You should've hammered flop, your 15 outs are probably good and you should've pushed with them.
Villain could easily have check-called the flop with TJ/TQ, or slowplaying A9 but the way you played it you don't really know. Hard to say what you play on the river is, since you never bet enough to define his hand...

What is the opponents preflop calling range? Does he call with any hand that contains an unpaired 9 or T in this spot normally? What is your image, and how would the villain react to it preflop?

All things being equal you call, because Fnord is correct. You created a situation where you're equally behind or ahead of a river bet into you considering the apparent fold equity on the board coupled with your unwillingness to committ the turn.

Tough decision. First off, fnord is right, your bet on the flop is very obviously a c/bet but I dont find it to be a bad move, concidering that you have the strong draw. (with AKo in this situation I probably check behind, the chance is too great he will read your AK and call down the flop with a pocket pair) In this case, I might concider firing a second barrel on the turn, if you think hes fairly conservative and has a low pocket pair.

I'd say the chance is pretty small that your opponent is holding 9x, since that turn isnt the greatest card for bare trips, and he should feel the need to protect it. Pretty much the only way I see him having trips or better on the turn is if he was planning on making a c/r. (88 might play the same?)

There is also a small possibility he's got JT. To sniff out this or 9x we'd need more information on your reads on this guy's calling range.

I think I call here, depending a bit on your read on the guy. I am more inclined to call a good player that has the ability to put you on AK and try to make a move on a very scary river.

I don't think a typical "solid" player is likely to do this as a bluff (for one thing, given the weakness you've shown, why would he feel the need to bet the full size of the pot if he were bluffing?), so it seems to be some sort of a value bet. The size of his bet makes it too difficult for worse hands to call unless he has a full house (a flush or worse is pressured to fold), so I would guess he has something like J-T, which would make perfect sense as played. I'd probably fold.

I don't agree that you should've bet the turn. A worse hand will almost never call if you bet, and he probably isn't folding most of his likely hands that have you beaten (a 9, J-T, etc). Just take the free card.

Results: I called, villain had the 9 and I paid him off :(

what did he call your preflop raise with 9X suited?