Ace on the River! I'm so weak though...

I'm playing like a rock. Villain is a solid tag on my right and certainly a winning player in this game. 20/5/1 for this session, but he usually plays a bit more agressively.

I think I'm beat. Good fold or stupid?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($43.50)
Button ($60.30)
SB ($104.95)
BB ($30.20)
UTG ($55)
UTG+1 ($99.15)
Hero ($114.60)
MP2 ($142.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K:spade:, A:spade:.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) 3:spade:, 5:club:, 4:club: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $6.75, UTG+1 calls $6.75.

Turn: ($23) 9:club: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($23) A:diamond: (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $15, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $38

I don't think I'd be able to fold here, but you're probably right. By continuation-betting the flop and checking the turn after you got called, you've practically announced that you have overcards. The fact that he's willingly betting into you when the ace hits, probably means AK is no good.

You need to make a bet on the turn that you can get away from.Checking and turn and facing the river bet doesn't tell you if he's bluffing/has the flush/or has sucked out and is "fake bluff betting".On the turn I say a bet of $17 is something you can get off of if raised($20-$22 is too much).

This is such an easy fold it's not even close

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WhooFleuryScores

You need to make a bet on the turn that you can get away from.Checking and turn and facing the river bet doesn't tell you if he's bluffing/has the flush/or has sucked out and is "fake bluff betting".On the turn I say a bet of $17 is something you can get off of if raised($20-$22 is too much).

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You don't think frequently 2-barrelling a whiffed AK is a huge leak?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

This is such an easy fold it's not even close

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What do you think villain has here? From the action on the first 2 streets, a set fits very well, probably with the intention of leading or c/ring a safe turn.

This villain doesn't have 2pr here, and I think it's unlikely he has 2 clubs. Is this really such an easy fold? I'm leaning yes, but I don't think it's AS close as you make it sound.

I think you made a good fold. This is something I need to work on myself, not paying off better hands to a solid river bet when I hit something like TPTK. There are too many hands that beat you, plus if villian is solid, he has to know AK is in your hand range.

He has to think the chances you have AK/AQ here given previous action are far too high to make a $15 value bet with a worse hand than TPTK. He'd have to be really smart and consider you a really good player to be bluffing...or just a complete and utter dipshit.
Thus, I think he's got a set most of the time, but a flush with high clubs or the 67 straight are also possibilities not too unlikely at an 8-player table.

good points