$400 NL flopped set...need advice

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02-28-2006, 09:36 PM
underminedsk

$400 NL flopped set...need advice

Here is a $400nl hand that I just played:

Positions and stacks:
Preflop raiser: button, ~$300
Big Stack: EP ~$700
Me: MP ~$400

preflop (hand: 44):
BB calls blinds
Big stack calls blinds
I call blinds
Preflop Raiser raises to $24
BB calls
Big Stack calls
I call

flop (pot $101, 4 players, board: 478 rainbow):
BB checks
Big Stack checks
I check
Preflop Raiser Bets $24
BB folds
Big Stack calls
I raise to $76
Preflop Raiser calls
Big stack raises everyone all in ($299 for me to call)

Should I call here with bottom set? My read on the PFR is definately KK or AA.

Opinions? Thanks
03-01-2006, 12:46 AM
bdawg56kg

Tough. No reads I'm guessing. If there ever was a time to fold bottom set, this would probably be it. As for the flop play, I'm betting this flop almost every time. If the preflop raiser has missed overs, I don't think he c-bets into 3 other people, and if he has an overpair there's a good chance you will win a nice pot (if not his stack) by leading for 3/4 pot. The last thing you want is the flop to get checked around and a 5 or 6 to hit the turn.
03-01-2006, 11:52 AM
Rondavu

I think I call a lot in this spot.
03-01-2006, 12:06 PM
LeFou

ow.
someone here is holding the nuts. or the second nuts. or the third nuts.
and it's not you.
03-01-2006, 01:30 PM
r8ed

If you are going to play 44 and hit a set and then not try to double up, then fold preflop. That's my opinion. If he has a higher set or sucks out, then reload. It's one buyin and you are properly bankrolled right?
03-01-2006, 02:43 PM
crikreef

Re: $400 NL flopped set...need advice

Quote:

Originally Posted by underminedsk

My read on the PFR is definately KK or AA.

I think it's all about that. You got to trust your reads and the way Villain bet KK or AA is very possible. I say call and just say NH if he had the over set. The fact that is another $300 to call shouldnt be an issue if you are properly bankrolled to be playing $400NL so the money shouldnt be a huge reason to fold.
03-01-2006, 02:53 PM
nutsinho

duh

He's not cold-calling 24 bucks then reraising a reraise all in with two pair...
This is a ridiculously easy fold
03-01-2006, 03:07 PM
underminedsk

Re: $400 NL flopped set...need advice

Quote:

Originally Posted by crikreef

Quote:

Originally Posted by underminedsk

My read on the PFR is definately KK or AA.

I think it's all about that. You got to trust your reads and the way Villan bet KK or AA is very possible. I say call and just say NH if he had the over set. The fact that is another $300 to call shouldnt be an issue if you are properly bankrolled to be playing $400NL so the money shouldnt be a huge reason to fold.

Acutally, the real villan here is the guy from EP that raised everyone all in. I'm sure I've got the PFR owned hardcore, but obviously hes playing cautious and doesnt want to drop his full stack with an unimproved overpair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by r8ed

If you are going to play 44 and hit a set and then not try to double up, then fold preflop. That's my opinion. If he has a higher set or sucks out, then reload. It's one buyin and you are properly bankrolled right?

Calling raises with pocket pairs is profitable because the PFR is forced to bet the flop to protect his TPTK or overpair, or when someone else who is trying to spike a monster hits a good, but slightly lower hand than yours. On the other hand, should I always push there and chalk up flopped set over set to variance?

BTW, I layed it down, not because of the $300 id have to call, but because I couldnt think of any hand that I was beating that would make such a move. My read on this guy was 77 or 88, and I only had 1/4th of my stack commited to the pot.
03-01-2006, 03:16 PM
STIdrivr

and one guy had QQ and the other AA and you cry yourself to sleep.
03-01-2006, 04:16 PM
r8ed

Hands that don't bother me when I lose and have a suspicion I am beat when I call:
my KK vs. AA
my set vs. over set
my boat vs. quads

Actually all three of these scenarios happened to me in the last 6 hours of play but I still ended up with large profits. I think I should keep track of each allin when holding 2nd nuts to see how often I win. I'm fairly sure the donk allins vs. those hands far surpasses the ones I lose but I don't have hard evidence.
03-01-2006, 08:11 PM
sejje

Quote:

Originally Posted by r8ed

If you are going to play 44 and hit a set and then not try to double up, then fold preflop. That's my opinion. If he has a higher set or sucks out, then reload. It's one buyin and you are properly bankrolled right?

I'm with this guy.

I don't sweat set over set. I cry every time it happens, but I don't fault myself.

If he's got 88 or 77, why's he pushing? Is that still common at 400NL?

Regardless, I'm rarely folding here.
03-01-2006, 08:20 PM
crikreef

I misread the hand, I think you have to lay that down. He checked and then reraised all in, he was slow playin something big and realized he needed to protect it now. I'm assuming at $400NL you still get loose players sometimes so why isn't 56 possible? rainbow so he checked then realized one of you might have a set or two pair to suck out the boat with and on top of that the two over sets still beat you. I agree with nutsinho, easy fold.
03-01-2006, 10:20 PM
Lukie

Just flip a coin. It's much easier and will save you a lot of stress. And you are GAURANTEED to make the right play at least 1 out of every 2 times.
03-01-2006, 11:02 PM
bdawg56kg

Quote:

Originally Posted by r8ed

If you are going to play 44 and hit a set and then not try to double up, then fold preflop. That's my opinion. If he has a higher set or sucks out, then reload. It's one buyin and you are properly bankrolled right?

If hero does end up calling, it shouldn't be because of this. Everything in poker is situational, and there are situations where you should lay down a set (not necessarily implying that this is one of them). Bankroll and variance should have nothing to do with hero's decision to call or fold.

Also, at 100NL and below I'd say call this all day, but at higher limits I don't think this is the optimal strategy.