Goofing off, EZ call.

Villain is 45/10/2

PokerStars Game #4215411193: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/03/08 - 03:45:38 (ET)
Table 'Eunike' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Ohgoa99 ($32.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Quagmire30 ($16.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Demiparadigm ($35.25 in chips)
Demiparadigm: posts small blind $0.10
Ohgoa99: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demiparadigm [3s Ac]
Quagmire30: folds
Demiparadigm: raises $0.75 to $1
Ohgoa99: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Ah 6s Ts]
Demiparadigm: bets $1
Ohgoa99: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Ah 6s Ts] [5d]
FatDaddy2K5 joins the table at seat #4
Demiparadigm: bets $2
Ohgoa99: calls $2
*** RIVER *** [Ah 6s Ts 5d] [5h]
Demiparadigm: checks
Ohgoa99: bets $5.75
Demiparadigm: calls $5.75

Why is that an easy call?

> 2.3 : 1 in the pot.
> I don't see any opp, no matter how bad, betting like that without an ace. Your only chance is an overpair like 99/JJ/QQ
>Do you REALLY want to show the crap you raised with, for metagame reasons?

Explain? I see this as a fold.

> The table is 3 handed. I really don't care what people see me raising with. any Ace is easily worth a raise, as are most suited connectors.
> What is he calling with on the flop and turn? There are 6 aces better than mine (AK,AQ,AJ,AT,A6,A5) But chances are an agressive player will have raised any of these by the turn.
> It is possible, though unlikely that he was slowplaying a hand like TT or 66, but TT would oflen reraise preflop, as would AK and possibly AQ.
>What other hands are possible? I have a very agressive table image so he could easily be calling down with a worse pair than aces, or the obvious flush draw on the flop.
>On the river, we use a quick and dirty version of bayes' theorem to determine the best play. No missed draw will call any bet on the river, but may bet as a bluff. Other pairs may call a river value bet, but will also value bet some % of the time. Hands that beat us will always call, and will often raise. Missed draws may also raise as a bluff.
>Since there are more hands that we beat than beat us on the river, the best play is clearly to check with the intention of calling a bet.

3 handed, I call that all day long.

Missed FD is too obvious, So he's either got that or a T. I'm thinking a better A is raising you on the flop or turn if he has any aggression in him...You're ahead way too many times to fold that river. NH.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

> The table is 3 handed. I really don't care what people see me raising with. any Ace is easily worth a raise, as are most suited connectors.

---

Right that's error #1 from me, i assumed it was full ring and those were the only important/active players for some reason. Which does change things somewhat. :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

> What is he calling with on the flop and turn? There are 6 aces better than mine (AK,AQ,AJ,AT,A6,A5) But chances are an agressive player will have raised any of these by the turn.

---

Interesting cup-half-full take on it. I would look at my odds to win and say if he has an ace then I am either winning half the pot or losing it. Only being able to split or lose slashes the potential profitablility of a hand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

> It is possible, though unlikely that he was slowplaying a hand like TT or 66, but TT would oflen reraise preflop, as would AK and possibly AQ.

---

3-handed i agree pp's will get raised. The # players does change things.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

>What other hands are possible? I have a very agressive table image so he could easily be calling down with a worse pair than aces, or the obvious flush draw on the flop.
>On the river, we use a quick and dirty version of bayes' theorem to determine the best play. No missed draw will call any bet on the river, but may bet as a bluff. Other pairs may call a river value bet, but will also value bet some % of the time. Hands that beat us will always call, and will often raise. Missed draws may also raise as a bluff.
>Since there are more hands that we beat than beat us on the river, the best play is clearly to check with the intention of calling a bet.

---

This is where i trip up a bit on your logic. There are more hands that we beat on the river, but surely the probability of opp having those hands is far lower?

Also, surely there is a threshhold level for what bet you will call? What is that level in this hand? He bet 5.25 into a pot of 8 (i think). Do you call a pot size bet too?

I know what you're saying, that broken crap like KQ/JQ and 2 spades plays this the same. But anyone who calls to the river then bets with that is also capable of playing AJ like that.

Interesting thread. Would like to read more opinions. :)

Why in gods name are you playing 3 handed poker? Was the table just filling up?

When he said there's more hands that we beat, he was talking about in villians range.

I call that against that player. I think he missed a FD. Just be crappy if it had a five in it. He could also easily have something like KT.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

>On the river, we use a quick and dirty version of bayes' theorem to determine the best play.

---

I think I :heart: U

Standard. Well played

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Standard. Well played

---

coming from LAG

typical :D