Fold or No Fold?

I had been here for a short time but Villain didn't seem out of line....until this and then for the rest of the time he was there. I had raised my standard $4 about 5 times before this hand so I figured betting $6 would get me all folds or one caller max. I pushed the river because the hand is going to end up there anyway, so why not try to desperately rep a straight or flush. I figured I was up against a PP or Ax. Does anyone find a fold here?

***** Hand History for Game 3744555646 *****
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Tue Mar 14 22:51:46 EST 2006
Table Lady Ester (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: ptkevin11 ( $62.59)
Seat 2: guinnessz ( $46.95)
Seat 3: sdalex10 ( $37.65)
Seat 4: Akash2 ( $203.99)
Seat 5: shadow2131x ( $139.45)
Seat 6: jandje ( $129.05)
shadow2131x posts small blind (0.50)
jandje posts big blind (1)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jandje [ Qh, Ah ]
ptkevin11 calls (1)
guinnessz calls (1)
sdalex10 folds.
Akash2 calls (1)
shadow2131x calls (0.50)
jandje raises (5) to 6
ptkevin11 calls (5)
guinnessz folds.
Akash2 calls (5)
shadow2131x folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8d, As, 8h ]
jandje bets (15)
ptkevin11 folds.
Akash2 raises (30) to 30
jandje calls (15)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kd ]
jandje checks.
Akash2 bets (30.16)
jandje calls (30.16)
** Dealing River ** : [ Td ]
jandje bets (62.89)
jandje is all-In.
Akash2 calls (62.89)
Creating Main Pot with $263.10 with jandje
** Summary **
Main Pot: $263.10 | | Rake: $3
Board: [ 8d As 8h Kd Td ]

Results in white:
ptkevin11 balance $56.59, lost $6 (folded)
guinnessz balance $45.95, lost $1 (folded)
sdalex10 balance $37.65, didn't bet (folded)
Akash2 balance $338.04, bet $129.05, collected $263.10, net +$134.05 [ Qc 8s ] [ three of a kind, eights -- As,Kd,8s,8d,8h ]
shadow2131x balance $138.45, lost $1 (folded)
jandje balance $0, lost $129.05 [ Qh Ah ] [ two pairs, aces and eights -- Ah,As,Kd,8d,8h ]

The villain may be out of line pre-flop but post-flop he seems to be playing pretty openly, and since you have to assume he'll be a conventional player since you have no reads, why did you refuse to believe (or challenge) his bets? Why would AA or AK not be in your thoughts? You have gone all in with TPGK on a paired board with a king on the turn against a villain who has shown explicit strength from the off.

Q8 off

nice. I should start playing that hand more often.

BTW did you have any PAhud read on villain? He seems like the type of player who runs like 75% vpip. That would have been a dead giveaway that he held the 8.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by biondino

The villain may be out of line pre-flop but post-flop he seems to be playing pretty openly, and since you have to assume he'll be a conventional player since you have no reads, why did you refuse to believe (or challenge) his bets? Why would AA or AK not be in your thoughts? You have gone all in with TPGK on a paired board with a king on the turn against a villain who has shown explicit strength from the off.

---

Well, the only other read I had was he raised often preflop and most people who do that don't limp/call with AA/KK...possibly AK, but not likely. He seemed aggressive enough post flop too, but not over the top prior to this. The turn did scare me but I'm a fish and was still trying to seek a showdown while drawing to the nut boat. I checked to get to the river cheaply and then abandoned that plan and donked it.

also the limp call could very well be 89s or 78s and that wouldn't even be an out of line play preflop. I think 89s is valuable enough to play a three way raised pot with deep stacks.

I would probably fold to his min-raise there, although it's kind of tough to give him credit for any 8 here. Your bjggest blunder was on the river when you raised all in. If he has an ace then you're splitting the spot (Aces and 8's with K kicker), and if he has an 8 you're dead. No hands you outright beat will call you, so it's a lose lose situation. Just call the river if you think you're ahead, but I would just muck it personally.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by aislephive

I would probably fold to his min-raise there, although it's kind of tough to give him credit for any 8 here.

---

Same, although I don't think it's so hard to put him on the 8. I see Q8 played just as often as K9 and A8s isn't unimaginable either. I think the only hands that are raising on the paired flop are 8x, AA and maybe AK.

AK and AA are unlikely going by Villians preflop play so we're only really worried about an 8. I think you should come over the top of Villian on the flop and fold if he continues to play as what hands are ganna call/raise your reraise on the flop? As played you gave him no real chance for him to tell you that your beat and what hands that your ahead of are ganna call your river bet?

flop is a dead give away.
opp is obviosuly horrible
id have called the flop and probably folded the turn i certainly wouldnt have done my stack over as such

Definitely have to fold this. I would fold it on the flop because a 30BB minraise isnt a bluff. Either its a weak play by AK or its a pot builder. On the river, you are beating absolutely nothing and he's not folding if he's the average opponent.

Every single imaginable draw got there, its a paired board, and on top of that you're losing to AK and AT now. My first thought was AK until that poster gave it away with Q8o. Sometimes its hard to fold to a flop minraise, but definitely check and fold the turn and then even more definitely check and fold the river. Theres no reason your stack has to get allin on the river so don't tell yourself that.

Are you a pot bet sort of guy or did having a couple sexy hole cards give you the confidence to go big?

From the flop on, file this under "when I don't want to play a big pot."