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push draw
ok, i wasn't going to post this hand, but a similar hand got interesting responses so i think i will. I hadn't been playing with him all too long, but he was definitely tight aggressive, but he didn't strike me as being especially good.
***** Hand History for Game 3796437031 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 22, 05:53:56 ET 2006
Table Table 95575 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: mikla555 ( $112.45 )
Seat 2: LeejaStar ( $105.63 )
Seat 4: T__K__O ( $114.70 )
Seat 5: kevmon111 ( $149.65 )
Seat 6: lahlalay ( $0 )
Seat 8: PUNIO ( $127.55 )
Seat 9: zhoti ( $144.30 )
Seat 7: Wahoo2006 ( $203.74 )
Seat 10: pisces_lover ( $94 )
Seat 3: verynicegril ( $38.61 )
verynicegril posts small blind [$0.50].
T__K__O posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Wahoo2006 [ Jd Qd ]
kevmon111 calls [$1].
Wahoo2006 calls [$1].
PUNIO folds.
zhoti folds.
pisces_lover calls [$1].
mikla555 folds.
LeejaStar folds.
verynicegril calls [$0.50].
T__K__O checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, Ad, 4d ]
verynicegril checks.
T__K__O checks.
kevmon111 bets [$5].
Wahoo2006 calls [$5].
pisces_lover raises [$20].
verynicegril folds.
T__K__O folds.
kevmon111 folds.
Wahoo2006 is all-In.
two questions. one, do you like my push. two, in his shoes, what's the worst you're calling with. i don't really know what he knows about me, i'm playing tag, and i'd doubled up on this table with aa vs kk not long ago though.
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It looks like he's protecting a hand against a slightly scary board, if he's thinking he may wonder why you haven't done the same. For this reason I'd normally just raise the flop. Whats your plan if pisces folds and you face another PS bet on a blank turn?
If i'd seen you get aggressive with draws in the past I think I'm calling with any decent A as you line dosent really add up. I don't think it matters too much though as a push will still get enough folds, and with a pair as well you equity is so good I still think its +EV.
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you've limited his options to either a call or a fold. This is great because if he folds, and its a decent hand, you win that fairly juicy pot. If he calls you've still got like probably at least 11 outs to catch, which with the money in there, is worth going for. It doesnt really matter whether he calls or folds! (too much)
Im sure theres some kind of theory thing that applies to what you did, possibly from sklansky? i cant remember but it looks like it.
Except when he has a set of fours. not sure what happens then. Dont really like the thought of that.
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Pair + flush draw is awesome, you are only in trouble if he has a set.
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Against any of the likely ranges you are way ahead here. Worst case scenario is, as arkana posted, a set. If you are against AK you are a coinflip, KdJ you are 45:55, and AJ is about as bad as a set. I cant imagine you can put villain on a specific hand like that, and again, against the likely ranges you are ahead.