Analysis of a donk play

I reverted back to a donk play last night which really frustrated me. I haven't made a play this bad in a long time, and I thought I'd share my thought process so you (and I) can avoid doing something so dumb in the future.

It is plays like these, that will kill your bankroll in the longrun. Folding in these situations is a huge bankroll saver.

Ok - here's the situation. We had just started the 3rd hour of the Rebuy tourney. I had more than enough chips to just post and fold for the next hour and would still be ok - in other words I was deepstacked enough that I had no pressure at this point to crank up the aggression.

Game #1382458105 - Tournament $80,000 R&A - 300/600 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/29-22:24:22.7 (CST)
Table "$80,000 R&A 5" (MTT) -- Seat 10 is the button
Seat 1: hungryhippos (15,340 in chips)
Seat 2: Mr. Lobo (27,833 in chips)
Seat 3: Jcclan (12,548 in chips)
Seat 4: cherryPI (24,880 in chips)
Seat 5: chardrian (24,175 in chips)
Seat 6: cranky (13,736 in chips)
Seat 7: MrWinstons (7,190 in chips)
Seat 8: MrOpus (9,835 in chips)
Seat 9: truesyalose (12,638 in chips)
Seat 10: TomSkyler (18,867 in chips)
Mr. Lobo: Ante (50)
Jcclan : Ante (50)
cherryPI: Ante (50)
chardrian: Ante (50)
cranky : Ante (50)
MrWinstons: Ante (50)
MrOpus : Ante (50)
truesyalose: Ante (50)
TomSkyler: Ante (50)
hungryhippos: Ante (50)
hungryhippos: Post Small Blind (300)
Mr. Lobo: Post Big Blind (600)
Dealing...
Dealt to chardrian [ 9c ]
Dealt to chardrian [ 9d ]
Jcclan : Fold
cherryPI: Fold
chardrian: Raise (1,825)

I make a standard raise with a very good hand. This is a good play.

cranky : Fold
MrWinstons: Fold
MrOpus : Fold
truesyalose: Fold
TomSkyler: Fold
hungryhippos: Fold
Mr. Lobo: Raise (7,000)

Mr. Lobo makes a big raise - over three times my raise. I know Mr. Lobo and I know he is a very good player. Mr. Lobo also has me outstacked. So I quickly put him on 77-KK; AK; or air.

And now I begin thinking. I don't think he has AA because I think he would try and maximize value here. JJ-KK he would make this play both trying to maximize value if I had a lower pp and/or taking a pot with little risk of getting oofed. 77-TT he would make this play just trying to take the pot now, and knowing that he might get a fold out of a hand even as high as QQ because he is representing such strength. And he might be making a resteal just to show me who's boss.

And this is where I get greedy. Mr. Lobo has now made the pot big. And all those purty chips sure look nice to me. So I convince myself that he has 77-TT; maybe AK and/or air and that I will push him off this pot or be ahead in a race for tons of chips.

chardrian: Raise (22,300)
Mr. Lobo: Call (16,525)

He instantly called. And I just drooped knowing he had a high pocket pair.

So there's really two lessons to be had here:

1) When someone, especially someone you know is a good player, puts you to the test, they usually are NOT bluffing. Unless you are desperately shortstacked, the best option is usually to fold. And in those rare occassions that you fold and get shown a bluff - shake it off and remember this hand as what is "normal."

2) Have some balls with big hands. Mr. Lobo played this hand like a champ. A standard play with KK here would be to minraise me or just smooth call. But all I would have done is called and folded the flop unless I hit a 9. By raising big here, Lobo is risking that I will fold and he will take down a smallish pot - but that's probably what he is going to do no matter what. But he is also increasing the probabilities of really maximizing the value of his hand if I have a lower pocket pair and/or AK which is very possible given my Early Position raise and I decide to push (which is exactly what I did).

Quick summary - 1) when someone raises your raise, they usually mean it. 2) try reraising with your big hands rather than slowplaying them to make really really big pots.

chardrian said, "bummer"
chardrian said, "vnh"
*** FLOP *** : [ 8h 5h Kc ]
*** TURN *** : [ 8h 5h Kc ] [ Th ]
*** RIVER *** : [ 8h 5h Kc Th ] [ 4s ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 49,050 | Board: [ 8h 5h Kc Th 4s ]
hungryhippos lost 350 (folded)
Mr. Lobo bet 24,175, collected 49,050, net +24,875 (showed hand) [ Ks Kd ]
(three of a kind, kings)
Jcclan lost 50 (folded)
cherryPI lost 50 (folded)
chardrian lost 24,175 (showed hand) [ 9c 9d ] (a pair of nines)
cranky lost 50 (folded)
MrWinstons lost 50 (folded)
MrOpus lost 50 (folded)
truesyalose lost 50 (folded)
TomSkyler lost 50 (folded)