call this river allin?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($13.90)
MP2 ($25.35)
CO ($8.05)
Hero ($30.20)
SB ($3.75)
BB ($51)
UTG ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K:heart:, K:spade:.
MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.35) 6:heart:, 4:spade:, 3:club: (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.8, MP1 calls $1.80.

Turn: ($5.95) 2:club: (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4.

River: ($13.95) 7:spade: (3 players)
MP1 bets $7.1 (All-In), Hero ??

What hands can you put villain on here? Should this be a call or fold and why?

sets and 45.

i fold.

I don't like the turn bet.

What would be a good amount to bet on the turn?

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Originally Posted by Toe

What would be a good amount to bet on the turn?

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$0

Call most river bets.

If i check behind on the turn, the river pot will be $5.95. How big of a bet can i call here?

As the hand was played, there is £13.95 in the pot on the river and it's $7 to call so i need to win this more than half the time for it to be profitable? Is this thinking correct?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toe

If i check behind on the turn, the river pot will be $5.95. How big of a bet can i call here?

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Pot or so. It depends on what you think he wants you to do. I aim to disappoint people who try to manipulate me with bet sizes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toe

As the hand was played, there is £13.95 in the pot on the river and it's $7 to call so i need to win this more than half the time for it to be profitable? Is this thinking correct?

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Yes, but thinking a level deeper, after that turn card do you want to play for stacks? Are you raising pre-flop and c-betting a lot? This is a pretty good spot to make it clear that bet flop, check turn isn't a green-light to steal the pot.

Maybe I'm missing something, but you are being asked to call 7 bux here on approximately a 21 dollar pot. Your getting 3 to 1 on your money, are you sure you are beat? Depending on the read I would call w/ overpair on 3 to 1 on the river.

Easy fold for me....What else could he have? AA, QQ, JJ (not likely as he didn't raise PF), and he cold called your raise. Maybe he is playing a small overpair too aggressively, but more than like he is strong.

You have to be more than 75% sure that he has you beat due to pot odds (read my above post). In this situation at these limits I just don't think you can be taht sure.

I call this most of the time. You're gett 3:1 on your $$ here.

So im getting 3:1 on my money, this means i need to be 75% sure im ahead to call? Can someone run through the maths on this please, or point me to somewhere that explains it, thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toe

So im getting 3:1 on my money, this means i need to be 75% sure im ahead to call? Can someone run through the maths on this please, or point me to somewhere that explains it, thanks.

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No. Getting 3:1 means that you only have to be ahead 25% of the time to break even.

For example, say the pot is $200 and someone bets $100. The pot now becomes $300 and it's $100 for you to call. You're calling $100 to win $300 or getting 3:1. If you call and have the worst hand then you lose $100. If you call and have the best hand you win $300. So to break even you have to be ahead 25% of the time.

Ex. You call 4 times...

3 times you lose $100. (3 x -$100 = -$300)
1 time you win $300 (1 x +$300 = +$300)
Net winnings = $0

If you're ahead more than 25% (1/4) of the time you make money. Another way to say it is that if you're behind less than 75% (3/4) of the time you make money.

Without a read to make me think otherwise, I would probably wince and make the call. Don't get so caught up in the math though that you miss Fnord's point about controlling the pot size. Correctly manipulating the pot is a skill that is lost on many players.

ok thanks for the replys everyone, have greatly helped.