Trips versus draw

At my level (5NL/10NL) a lot of the wins comes from flopping a set and betting it up.
In general I've taken the advice that at this level its fine to value bet the flop and frequently with lower PP that works fine.

In general, when I've seen a drawing flop (usually 2-3 of a suit, but possibly a straight draw) I've bet strong to try to take the pot there or make them pay over the odds for their draw.

However I've recently read in Schlansky's Hold 'Em Poker that trips improve to a boat or better 33% of the time.

So now I'm thinking that it's probably worth giving good draw odds to those on a draw (especially to crowded pots) because they will hit their draw approximately 1 in 3. However of those 1 in 3 I will have hit my boat.

So they should win approximately 20% of these hands; and so its worth giving them 1:2 odds because in reality they're facing a 1:4 situation.

So even a potentially "dangerous" flop which gives me a set is worth value betting; no need to be more aggressive than that.

Does this make sense? Am I getting the wrong end of this stick?

When you have trips or a set against a flush draw you aren't really concerned about improving - you are just worried about your opp not hitting. In general what happens with a set/trips versus a flush draw is that you are taking one out away from the draw because if the draw card of your kicker hits you improve to a boat even though they catch their flush.

E.g.

board is :Ah: :2h: :2s:

You have :2c: :5c:

Your opp has :Jh: :Kh:

If the :5h: hits your boat crushes his flush.

So instead of worrying about how many times you improve - what you really need to concentrate on is your opp's chances.

With a "normal" flush draw, your opp has a bout a 33% chance to hit so you need to make sure to give him odds that are over that amount. With a set or trips, your opp's chances go down to closer to 25% because they need to catch outs that don't improve your hand as well.

So you could lower your bets here to lay worse odds and still be doing the right thing, but really anyone with a draw is going to call whether you have the trips or not so you might as well just bet the same.