Live $1/2 NL - Bad turn play, bad river/good fold?
Live $1/2 NL
- Hero is chip-leader, 3 med stacks, rest small stacks, stacks range from ~1/3 x -> ~3x max buy-in of $200
- My table image at this stage in the game is 'wild' because in a previous hand, I tried to make a move on some one by rep'ing a str8 and flush card with my TT and it turned out he had slow-played AA in a 6-way pot :? ( I pushed him AI thinking I could easily move him off his top pair; I hit a T on the river ;) ). [I won't try this without thinking that I've got some real solid fold equity. Bad spot, but I liked the results ]
- I've been working hard on knowing when to fold'em and how to get paid off huge by managing the size of my bets/over-bets in conjunction with managing my image. I'll also gamble in high implied odds situations and accept the variance that goes along with it; I won't pass on small edges if I think I've got one. Basically, I'm playing my usual 'try to exploit their weaknesses with post-flop play/selective lag' style of play.
- MP2(?3) has made some whiffed/behind/were do I stand? type c-bets into multi-player fields. Pre-flop, in this hand, I put him directly on {TT+ (maybe 99+), AJs+}.
- I have to treat him as a relative unknown; I only had about ~3hrs to watch him play about 12 to 15% of his hands, and had watched him take ~6 to 8 hands to show-down. I rated him as predictable/conservative. He gets the 'you play predictably pre-flop, and tend to over value over-pairs/top-pairs' treatment from me until he proves otherwise.
- Bet amounts and stack sizes are estimates based on memory
-Don't ask about the 8x pre-flop raise ... the standard raise range is 3x to 1ox BB and sometimes more in these live, NL games. If you've been following any of the Sklansky threads over on 2+2, he calls this playing NL as if there's an invisible ante and advocates tight play in games like this. I really think that that might be an over-generalization and doesn't take stack sizes into account. But, it is 'good' advice particularly suited to players who don't enjoy having to make tough decisions.
saw flop|saw showdown
MP (~$425)
Hero (~$650)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
all others fold, MP2(or 3?) raises $15, CO calls $15, Hero calls $15, SB (poster) calls $14, 1 fold
Loose call on the button to a raise for sure, but I'm obviously willing and able to lay down a flopped K, and I like the players and the stacks entering the hand and my positional advantage.
Flop: ($62 less rake ($4)) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, raghttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets $70, CO folds, Hero calls to $70, SB folds
I value-floated ;) (don't want to get re-raised and I don't want to build the pot, and I likey his stacky) knowing that I'm very possibly behind to a likely AK and a less likely AA, QQ and less than likely KK. I'm feeling ahead of enough his range to take one off and see what he does on the turn and to see if I pick up any additional outs.
Turn: (~$200 ) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
MP bets $60, Hero raises $100 to $160, MP calls $100.
His lead bet seemed either weak or very strong. I couldn't get a read on his demeanour. On one hand, I was torn between wanting to keep the pot size down, and being able to get away from my hand if re-raised. But, on the other hand, I felt that I was raising for value. After he calls , I think .... nice I got him where I want him and then **duh, light-bulb** -> "Oh Shit, I think maybe it would have been a better play to I have raised more, or go all-in, what if an A hits, nah that's only 3 outs!!??"
River: (~$500) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
MP bets all-in his last ~$200, Hero folds
Oh, F***, shitty river and now he's leading, spider senses are tingling. The way this passive a player took the betting lead back, his body language, and the way he seemed to insta-fire on the A added to the picture for me. It just seemed too likely that he had QQ or AK. So, after some thought, I mucked.
Bad turn play, good river fold .... right? Or, for this type of turn-decision, is it just a question of reads and the level of variance you want to take on as to whether you go all-in, call again, or re-raise a larger amount?
Anyone think I should have called the river? Sometimes I make this call, sometimes I fold. I know I was getting pretty good odds on the river, but I like to trust my reads in situations like this. This guys just seemed to really like his hand now.
Our table broke up right after this hand, so the guy knew we wouldn't be playing at the same table anymore. As we were racking our chips, he 'confirmed' he had AK. I obviously don't know 100% if he was telling the truth or not, but I think he was.
I think the saved-$$ being able to make folds like this in the right spots (on the turn or river), is a definite edge over the competition. BTW, this was a definite adjustment from LHE river play that I've come to focus on in NL. In LHE, you rarely, if ever fold on the river in a big pot. I really feel that these extra earned fold-based sklansky-bucks account for a good percentage of a good NL player's overall take (I wish I could track this stat)). Add to that, the extra money you make on laggin' it up, and that's where I believe you need to look if you want to beat a game for the maximum in live, small stakes NL play.
