100NL: Extracting value from an aggro-donk with quads

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05-18-2006, 12:45 PM
mcatdog

100NL: Extracting value from an aggro-donk with quads

This is a fun hand because both the villain and myself have huge stacks. I have $220 and he covers. My read on him is that he's passive pre-flop but overly aggressive post-flop. He pretty much auto-bets the pot if it's checked to him.

Folded to him on the button, he limps in and I check with K:club: 3:club:. Flop is Q:diamond: 3:diamond: 3:heart:. I hate slow-playing in general, but I think this guy has been stealing a lot of pots from me and I've been waiting for a chance to let him know that just because I check to him doesn't mean he can have the pot. I decide that this is it. I check and he bets $3, I call.

Turn is the 3:spade:. Yahtzee! I check to him again and he bets $8. Should I check-raise here hoping that he has a queen and will call. I thought for a long time about what to do but I eventually just called.

River is an irrelevant low card, I check and he bets $33. I still have nearly $210 behind. How much should I raise it to?
05-18-2006, 12:48 PM
gabe

i make it $70, maybe he calls with ace high. obv if you think he has a queen just push.
05-18-2006, 12:50 PM
johnny_fish

Quote:

Should I check-raise here hoping that he has a queen and will call.

No, you're getting the stack of Qx anyway. Maximize vs. other hands.

Quote:

How much should I raise it to?

Push. AA/KK/Qx will call.
05-18-2006, 12:58 PM
gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Push. AA/KK/Qx will call.

yea, they will call but they arent likely. his line is hardly ever AA, KK, and he takes this line with lots of other hands besides Qx (remember he is aggro donkey)
05-18-2006, 01:03 PM
johnny_fish

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Push. AA/KK/Qx will call.

yea, they will call but they arent likely. his line is hardly ever AA, KK, and he takes this line with lots of other hands besides Qx (remember he is aggro donkey)

Anything else besides AA/KK/Qx will fold to any raise right?

What about the (small) risk of him just calling the 70 raise with Qx (and missing 100$ value)?
05-18-2006, 01:11 PM
jackvance

I'd just raise the pot. He probably is gonna muck it anyway without a made hand. And in the case of a made hand, he is giving his stack regardless. I think you did the best you could to extract maximum value from his (probably) nothing hand.
05-18-2006, 01:19 PM
mcatdog

Thanks guys. His overbet on the river made me think he actually had a queen, so I just went ahead and pushed. He folded instantly and I wondered whether I'd made it too easy for him to fold a queen. Now that I think about it some more, he probably had nothing and he definitely wouldn't have folded a queen.
05-18-2006, 03:15 PM
dalecooper

Based on your description, there's no way he folds a queen here. Personally I'd try a check-min-raise and hope for a call from ace high, or a bluff re-raise from whatever. Depending how dumb he is, he might think you're messing with him - and offer you a rare opportunity to stack someone who has absolutely nothing.

To me, it seems like if he has a queen and you check-min-raise him, he's going to put it all in to try to get you to fold (because he probably thinks you have a queen also) - so you get his stack no matter what amount you raise. If he has KK/AA you're definitely getting another raise from him, as well. So we're just talking about maximizing vs. all other hands, and I think most other hands will fold most of the time to a push (unless he's a complete moron). So why not try to induce another bluff with a little gamesmanship? He seems to really like bluffing. You could hesitate a few seconds and then min-raise him, and it might get his blood up enough to fire... what are we on here? the fifth barrel? Who knows.
05-18-2006, 04:15 PM
gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Based on your description, there's no way he folds a queen here.

does anyone fold a queen here?
05-18-2006, 04:21 PM
dalecooper

Quote:

Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Based on your description, there's no way he folds a queen here.

does anyone fold a queen here?

Welllllll - depending on the opponent and the way the hand was played and the amount of the check-raise... etc. etc. I've folded a boat to quads in a home game before because I knew the guy inside and out. But generally, no. I guess it's more interesting to speculate how many people would RAISE with a queen in that spot, having been check-raised on the river for less than a full stack.
05-18-2006, 04:49 PM
dsaxton

I'd lead out on the turn.
05-18-2006, 04:57 PM
dalecooper

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I'd lead out on the turn.

Why? Odds are slim to none that he (villain)has anything at all. If we're lucky he has a middle pair, but probably he has ace high or air. He'd have to be truly donkalicious to raise at that point in the hand, because a leadout on that turn after check-calling the flop says "I have a queen or maybe I have a 3 - you're throwing money away if you stay in this hand." I could only see leading the turn against the most highly aggressive or rock-bottom stupid players. Or alternatively someone so smart that they would outsmart themselves here and think you're pulling a really advanced bluff.
05-18-2006, 05:56 PM
dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I'd lead out on the turn.

Why? Odds are slim to none that he (villain)has anything at all. If we're lucky he has a middle pair, but probably he has ace high or air. He'd have to be truly donkalicious to raise at that point in the hand, because a leadout on that turn after check-calling the flop says "I have a queen or maybe I have a 3 - you're throwing money away if you stay in this hand." I could only see leading the turn against the most highly aggressive or rock-bottom stupid players. Or alternatively someone so smart that they would outsmart themselves here and think you're pulling a really advanced bluff.

To disguise my hand and give myself the best chances of stacking this player if he has a Q. Who cares about extracting more value from A-3 offsuit or something? Reads really don't have much to do with this hand anymore, unless he is an absolute dumbass who will lose a ton of money with complete air (his most likely hand next to a full house). You should just play the rest of the hand under the assumption that he has a Q.

His read was that he autobets flops when checked to, not that he just keeps firing with air when his opponent probably isn't folding to any bet.
05-18-2006, 06:12 PM
bdawg56kg

I think you played it well. On the turn, he either has a queen or air most of the time. If you call turn and check river, I think he bets a queen/air everytime, allowing you to cr ai.
05-19-2006, 09:35 AM
dalecooper

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

His read was that he autobets flops when checked to, not that he just keeps firing with air when his opponent probably isn't folding to any bet.

I may be reading too much into things, having seen the hand history, but you have to admit:

- It looks strongly like villain fired over & over on all streets here with air, and folded as soon as he was played back at. 20/20 hindsight and all that, but it brings me to my second, more theoretical point:

- Players who are willing to make pot-sized bets on most flops, whether they hit or not, are not that inclined to roll over just because someone called them on a scary board. I would absolutely expect villain to take one more stab at this pot after the flop bet, if he's that aggro. Why? Not just because may have a tendency toward it, but also because it makes sense given the board. Hero could easily be chasing a flush draw (two diamonds on the flop), or hanging on to a middle pocket pair, and this gives the villain a perfect opportunity to steal by repping turned quads or threes full of queens.

So to me it really comes down to this: is it worth leading the turn to try to stack threes full of queens (which you're probably going to stack anyway, because he's definitely betting both turn and river, and not folding to any raise you make), vs. lying back and letting the rest of this guy's range fire extra bets at you? I'd say by calling the flop and checking the turn, hero can probably expect one more bluff from this guy most of the time. And judging from his read, it will probably be a good-sized bluff, not another $3 bet.