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VCPoker 50NL. Hero has ~$70 and is on the button with :2d::2c::. Villain is UTG+1 with a similar stack. Villain limps along with couple of other douchebags. Hero raises to $2.25. UTG and Villain call. Pot=$8
Flop = :2s::4h::td: UTG checks, Villain checks, Hero bets $4. UTG folds, Villain raises to $20. Hero calls. Pot=$48
Turn = :jc: Villain pushes. Hero folds.
Note--PT has Villain identified as fishy, but not certifiably insane/maniacal. Whaddya think?
Ugh, this is a terrible laydown. Insta-call everytime. You are not deep enough nor do you have a good enough read to even think about laying this down.
No fucking way I fold this in a raised pot, particularly after I raised. This is 2 pair or a big pair way too often. Calling off nearly half your stack on that flop, then folding for the rest on the turn is moronic.
Two pair, riiiight. T4 maybe? And tell me which big pair you think limps and then just calls PF. The whole reason people limp their big pairs is to crank it up once they get raised by someone in LP, no? So, maybe this is occasionally JJ or QQ, but not often, I don't think.Quote:
No fucking way I fold this in a raised pot, particularly after I raised. This is 2 pair or a big pair way too often.
Don't pull any punches, Fnord, please. Btw, 16 is not nearly half of 70--it's 23%.Quote:
Calling off nearly half your stack on that flop, then folding for the rest on the turn is moronic.
You put in a total of $26.25 thus far. Thats about 38% of your stack. I am paying off 44 TT JJ here.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
Is it bad to just push the flop after his reraise? The only reason I can see for calling the flop is to get the rest in on the turn... and you folded? Did you expect to see a 2 on the turn?
I don't get the call of the $20 bet on the flop. That puts in over $40 with just over pot behind. He asked you if you wanted to play for stacks on the flop, why wouldn't you fold or commit right there?Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
I need to see at least 3 orbits of stats before I put him on exactly 44/TT here.
No he expected his opponent to type in "I was just trying to push you off your hand" and check out. :lol:Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I felt pretty sure given the lack of PF action, etc. that he had an overset, but felt it was (improbable but) possible he had JJ/QQ/AT, or was just getting really laggy on what he felt was an implausible cbet. I wanted to see what he did on the turn, the turn confirmed my initial feelings, I dumped.Quote:
Is it bad to just push the flop after his reraise? The only reason I can see for calling the flop is to get the rest in on the turn... and you folded? Did you expect to see a 2 on the turn?
Yes, but the specific play in question was calling his $16 raise.Quote:
You put in a total of $26.25 thus far. Thats about 38% of your stack.
Amen.I pay him off everytime-the purpose of PP hunting is to set and destack.Set over set occurs once a month if that.I put him on an overplayed AA/KK/AK/QQ easily.If he has the audacity to show me the 44/JJ/TT I consider him a moron.Quote:
You put in a total of $26.25 thus far. Thats about 38% of your stack. I am paying off 44 TT JJ here.
That being said I reraise/push flop.
Consider the possibilities:
1. He has TT/44 and flopped a bigger set putting you on a big pocket pair.
2. He has JJ+ and played the flop in a stupid fast way that only gets action from a sane player with KK+/22/44/TT because he wants to get it in while his hand figures to be good.
3. He's way over-playing Tx
4. He flopped a weird ass 2 pair.
5. He thinks you're pushing him around with a button raise and half-pot flop bet and/or will make a weak laydown to extreme strength.
6. He's drunk
7. Who the hell knows.
You can have #1, I'll place my wager on the field against an unknown player online.
villain has to be one hell of a nit for me to consider dropping this.
I'd limp or raise more preflop.
flop bet is weak but OK, and just call the c/r. Pushing here is stupid and pointless.
Call the push on the turn.
just ignore all of thisQuote:
Amen.I pay him off everytime-the purpose of PP hunting is to set and destack.Set over set occurs once a month if that.I put him on an overplayed AA/KK/AK/QQ easily.If he has the audacity to show me the 44/JJ/TT I consider him a moron.
That being said I reraise/push flop.
Did anyone else think JT when they saw this?
I'd put my chips in so quick...
Pay off the over set if he has it. How often does that happen vs 2 pair or overpair? If you fold to plays like this you will make less money in the long run due to losing out on big pots you could have won.
If you're playing to set pockets 2s you cannot hope to find anything better here. No flushes, no straights, and this guy is trying to stuff chips in your pockets.
Ignoring #1, since it's what I obviously believe, let's go down the list:
2. Unlikely given PF action, but possible
3. Unlikely given size of flop bet, but again possible
4. I think we can entirely discount this as a possibilty. Villain is fishy, but not "limping and then calling a raise OOP with T4-fishy"
5. Unlikely given my read on villain but possible.
6. Likely, considering it's VCPoker, which has a huge Irish player base.
7. True
Weighing the combined likelihood of #s 2,4,5, and 6, against the likelihood of #1, Harrington-style, I still don't think you're coming out on the winning end of this.
I understand the logic here, and I'm sure it's true in a vacuum, but if you call on principle in specific instances where you feel you have very good reads, isn't that -ev in the long run?Quote:
If you fold to plays like this you will make less money in the long run due to losing out on big pots you could have won.
Right, that's exactly what concerns me here. Plausible flush/straight draws (not obvious made ones), would go a ways toward explaining his betting.Quote:
No flushes, no straights, and this guy is trying to stuff chips in your pockets.
Still think this was a good laydown??
Board: 2s 4h Td Jc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 78.2670 % 78.27% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Hand 2: 21.7330 % 21.73% 00.00% { TT+, 44, ATs, JTs, ATo, JTo }
Considering I don't accept most of the possible hands you used for villain, yes.
Ok, fine..... set over set and all overpairs, you still have 65% equity here.
Board: 2s 4h Td Jc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.6061 % 35.61% 00.00% { TT+, 44 }
Hand 2: 64.3939 % 64.39% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Andy--doesn't that calculation assume that we're treating QQ-AA as equally likely candidates? If so, not to beat a dead horse, I disagree with your estimate of my equity here.
Rightly or wrongly, I like your trust in your read here. But you needed to trust it one street earlier.
Wasn't aware you had reads on this guy. But for me, if I have a good read, and I mean a REALLY good read on a guy and I'm sure he has an over set; the only thing that changes is I will mutter something like "Fucker has a better set" under my breath as I press the call button anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
I kinda think he hit top pair with JT and he believed you were c-betting. Then he hit his two pair on the turn and thought the gods were with him.
But I guess it all depends on who you're up against. I could be way off and you could be right on, I'd still call this without hesitation though.
In your original post, you said villain was fishy. I don't understand why you are so convinced he has an overset.... I'm not saying he doesn't, but the second range I posted doesn't even include JT, which I consider a fairly possible hand for villain here. I just don't see why you are so concerned about paying off an over set here. We've all seen "fishy" people take alot worse hands to the felt.
Okay, so what actually happened is the hand played out the way I said in OP. Except I called his push. And got stacked by a very strangely played TT.
I wanted to post it this way in order for it not to seem like yet another "can I lay this down?" post, because I felt like it was actually a marginal situation and worth discussing; not just a bad beat post. Also, I don't believe I've ever actually laid down a set in a spot like this and wanted to argue devil's advocate for doing so.
Anyway, thanks for the responses, interesting stuff...
Lukie, I'm curious what your rationale is here. My rationale for just calling was basically fear of an overset--I imagine you have a better reason than that.Quote:
flop bet is weak but OK, and just call the c/r. Pushing here is stupid and pointless.
Because if he's bluffing you want to give him the chance to stick the rest in on the turn
It's a dry board and you have bottom set with position facing a huge c/r. Just call dude. The only legit draw out is an extremely unlikely 35.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
what is so strange about limp/calling a pair and check/raising a set? Granted most players aren't value betting this as agressively as he did, but the line is common.Quote:
And got stacked by a very strangely played TT.
edit: kinda goes hand in hand with my last point
edit 2: this was posted by somebody else
whyQuote:
If he has the audacity to show me the 44/JJ/TT I consider him a moron.
And if he shows AA/KK/QQ/AK it's a good play? Like you were kind of suggesting before? I don't get it.
I think limp/calling TT PF is kind of strange, at least a bit unusual. I think checkraising to 5x my bet on the flop holding top set is extremely strange.
When did I suggest that? I don't really follow you here...Quote:
Quote:
If he has the audacity to show me the 44/JJ/TT I consider him a moron.
why
And if he shows AA/KK/QQ/AK it's a good play? Like you were kind of suggesting before? I don't get it.
That was from someone else's response, samsonite, not your post.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
So that explains your results-oriented replies. Maybe you should start keeping track of how often you feared an overset and it turned out to not be one and you stacked the guy? I'm sure this happens too.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
I really don't feel like my replies here were result-oriented, Jack, unless you're of the mindset that any other strategy than instapushing when it comes to sets is inexcusably fussy (which it seems some people do). Please show me where I was results-oriented.Quote:
So that explains your results-oriented replies.
Not a bad idea.Quote:
Maybe you should start keeping track of how often you feared an overset and it turned out to not be one and you stacked the guy?
I think a raise is better in his spot but limping TT in early position isn't uncommon.Quote:
I think limp/calling TT PF is kind of strange, at least a bit unusual. I think checkraising to 5x my bet on the flop holding top set is extremely strange.
Your bet was only half pot size and he made a pot-sized raise. On the turn he makes a ~pot sized push. You don't see it much, at the passive stakes that you play at but it's not like the guy played it poorly.
fwiw, I bet this guy is cleaning that NL50 game up.
also sorry about my last post, it was a bit confusing b/c I was quoting you and somebody else, and I forgot to mention that. :)
get it in
agreeQuote:
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
this looks alot like J10s to me. I would think J10 of hearts or spades giving him TPGK + backdoor flush draw on the flop, which explains his semi bluff raise. That big of a raise does not look like it wants to get called at all... Why would he raise that much with an overset on the flop, with no draws at all on the board? This is an overpair or J10.... at least often enough to not lay it down without a read.
If you had a good read that he would a set like this then maybe you could justify it , otherwise I'm all in.
It's mainly that the play you say you made at first simply doesn't make sense. Either you think he has an overset and lay it down on the flop, or you call and go play for stacks.Quote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100
your quotes:
"I felt pretty sure given the lack of PF action, etc. that he had an overset" and then " I wanted to see what he did on the turn, the turn confirmed my initial feelings, I dumped." which is really bad reasoning and I think you know that too. You're drawing to a 1-outer and it's pretty rare that they're gonna slow down after such huge aggression - whether they were bluffing or not.
Even though you take other opinions into account, from the way you reason in this thread it was pretty clear that you were going on the notion that he had an overset and you were trying to see if you could get people to agree to a fold; Which as I said above is ofcourse silly since the pressure point - ie the decision to play for stacks or not - was on the flop.
If you were trying to play devil's advocate - which is good, I also think sets aren't auto-play-for-stacks (they are however in a lot of cases, especially when you are only facing a possible overset that beats you) - you should have picked another example imo. One where you gradually got sucked into it, not pressure pointed on the flop..
I always do this to keep a clear head about these 'bad suspicions'. Sometimes they are justified, sometimes not. If you look at how often you are wrong, you can see which ones are a good gut feeling and which ones aren't. This is crucial to your winrate..Quote:
Not a bad idea.Quote:
Maybe you should start keeping track of how often you feared an overset and it turned out to not be one and you stacked the guy?
The point of my post was less about the flop action and more about putting villain on possible hands and how likely these hands are. I agree that getting pressure pointed on the flop makes it a less than ideal example, but unfortunately I didn't get stacked twice today :wink:. I thought it was a marginal enough decision w/ enough content to lift it above the average bad-beat post masquerading as a set under set HH.Quote:
If you were trying to play devil's advocate - which is good, I also think sets aren't auto-play-for-stacks (they are however in a lot of cases, especially when you are only facing a possible overset that beats you) - you should have picked another example imo. One where you gradually got sucked into it, not pressure pointed on the flop..
yesQuote:
Originally Posted by mxiu
Well damn your luck hehe :DQuote:
Originally Posted by samsonite2100