Top set line check

***** Hand History for Game 4547666886 *****
$600 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 18, 23:31:27 ET 2006
Table Table 107669 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: schlimp ( $1196.10 )
Seat 2: waicrazy ( $1377.45 )
Seat 3: Evil_Ecstasy ( $572.10 )
Seat 4: eoppynation ( $2170.54 )
Seat 5: d_Professor ( $475.25 )
Seat 6: THEKINGSWEED ( $600 )
Seat 7: pokerjedi86 ( $905.35 )
Seat 8: DblRunRunDrw ( $600 )
Seat 9: hsalkcab ( $377.21 )
Seat 10: GARYRICH111 ( $202 )
schlimp posts small blind [$3].
waicrazy posts big blind [$6].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to pokerjedi86 [ Qs Qd ]
>You have options at Table 109068 Table!.
Evil_Ecstasy folds.
eoppynation folds.
d_Professor raises [$22].
THEKINGSWEED folds.
>You have options at Table 109068 Table!.
pokerjedi86 calls [$22].
DblRunRunDrw folds.
hsalkcab folds.
GARYRICH111 folds.
schlimp folds.
>You have options at Card Guard (No DP) Table!.
waicrazy folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Th, Qc ]
>You have options at Table 109068 Table!.
d_Professor checks.
pokerjedi86 bets [$40].
d_Professor calls [$40].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3d ]
d_Professor checks.
>You have options at Table 109068 Table!.
pokerjedi86 bets [$100].
d_Professor is all-In [$413.25]
>You have options at Table 107574 (No DP) Table!.
pokerjedi86 ????????????

Villain is 27/3

That 3 pfr% would be QQ+/AK right? He either has AA/KK or AK. The line really does look like AK though. If he has AA/KK wouldn't he lead on the flop and try and push you off a possible draw/two pair? That means he has to have a "lock" hand, and he's trying to get as much as possible.

But man would I want to call.

doesnt have a full buy in, playing a lot of hands and cold called the flop. fishy?

27/3 over how many hands? If it's a small sample he could've had a cold run of cards and could have JJ/TT here as well right?

of course it's a really tough fold but w/ villain as 27/3 from relatively EP, AK must make up a large percentage of his possible range from that position, probably half if you hold QQ. you can realistically put him on AA-KK-AK. maybe JJ, players like him would rather limp, call, hope to hit a set. but 10-10 is unlikely from that early EP. i think he was more than happy to calldown your aggression w/ the nut straight until that flush draw scare card came. you don't have odds to call, i probably fold.

this player doesn't push his semi-bluff draws or pair + OESD enough for you to worry about those much. if he was doing that more regularly (or at all, in this player's case) you might have an easier time calling.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by alias2211

of course it's a really tough fold but w/ villain as 27/3 from relatively EP, AK must make up a large percentage of his possible range from that position, probably half if you hold QQ. you can realistically put him on AA-KK-AK. maybe JJ, players like him would rather limp, call, hope to hit a set. but 10-10 is unlikely from that early EP. i think he was more than happy to calldown your aggression w/ the nut straight until that flush draw scare card came. you don't have odds to call, i probably fold.

this player doesn't push his semi-bluff draws or pair + OESD enough for you to worry about those much. if he was doing that more regularly (or at all, in this player's case) you might have an easier time calling.

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The only problem is he might raise JJ and he might check raise the turn AI with KK thinknig he is prbly ahead and if not he has 8 outs. The more I think about this hand I am starting to lean toward calling as the best option.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

The only problem is he might raise JJ and he might check raise the turn AI with KK thinknig he is prbly ahead and if not he has 8 outs. The more I think about this hand I am starting to lean toward calling as the best option.

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after a couple rereads, i am coming around to calling. we have to worry about AA, KK, AK or JJ.

-he's not CRing all in w/ AA, he would rather call down on that board given that level of passivity.

-the large overbet push suggests he is willing to draw w/ KK. he's just not out there pushing tons of draws, they have to be great to awesome draws.

-he's more likely to minraise CR you w/ the nut straight or JJ than push. nut straight because he wants to extract value by not showing too much aggression on the flush draw board, JJ because he doesn't want to push into AK that you might have. i think even for him, JJ leads out in that spot.

if you fold i don't have a problem, but i might be leaning slightly more towards calling now after thinking about this more. if the board pairs you beat his set if he has one (barring quads) and that edge might be all you need. that push just looks out of context for him to me now.

I call for the combined reason that I have massive equity if I am ahead, decent equity if I am behind, and because villain has no reason to believe hero has a hand as strong as top set.

OK. If villians PFR range is AA/KK/AK, then I guess we can call pre-flop for implied odds. Now, on the flop we are either drawing to boat+, or he's drawing to 6 outs (AA) or 10 outs (KK). And 6 outs are either As and Ks - doesn't matter which (either A or K gives him either over set or straight). If I 9 comes up... bleah.

So, I think given extreme tight range on villian, you might consider checking behind on the flop! Note that you are not even slowplaying here, you are just trying to keep the pot small since there is a 50% chance that you are behind, but you have outs to the nuts (unless an A or K falls)

As played: pot odds 3:1
25% AA you win 84% = 21%
25% KK you win 77% = 19%
50% AK you win 33% = 16%

You win 56% of the time. e-z call.

Easy call with these pot odds. Although his line & PFR scream AK. He did offer you 2 free cards though, thats strange. Any T or higher would kill his hand.

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh your pokerjedi.. goddamn knew there was a shark in my waters..

Villain in this hand is a major donk I know him all too well. Villain is very passive and doesnt understand the concept of protecting his hand. I would call, he could have TT/JJ even KK/AA(!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spino1i

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh your pokerjedi.. goddamn knew there was a shark in my waters..

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Ive said hello in the chat many times but your were apparently in too much "excstasy" to respond.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spino1i

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh your pokerjedi.. goddamn knew there was a shark in my waters..

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Ive said hello in the chat many times but your were apparently in too much "excstasy" to respond.

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i have "no player chat" on generally so I can see the action better. I wasnt purposely ignoring you lol