Called turn because I thought I was good, now I bluff river?

Villain isn't anything great, not overly donkish though. 40/15 fwiw. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($211.04)
MP ($131.25)
CO ($123.01)
Button ($51.95)
Hero ($201)
BB ($224.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif. Hero posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP raises to $5, 1 fold, Button calls $5, Hero (poster) calls $4, 1 fold.

Flop: ($17) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($17) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $9, Button folds, Hero calls $9.

River: ($35) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $22...

c/c river I think.

Yeah I check call too if you think you are good.

If you think you need to bluff this river to take the pot down then you probably shouldn't have called the turn.

I didn't plan on bluffing the river, but that card is a great one to bluff if he indeed has a better hand. If I check can I really call a pot-sized river bet? Any hand that doesn't beat TT is probably betting this river and it's not going to be a call I want to make.

if hes calling stationy he might call. I like the play if you bluff enough for it to not stand out as such

What do you put them on if you think you are good on the turn? Whatever they are betting on the turn looks like it has a good chance of improving on the river. I like a river check.

But if there is value to be gained by check calling the river, then bluffing destroys your chances of extracting that value.

I'm betting here because if I check, I'm REALLY going to have a hard time calling a big bet on this board. But if I bet, I still win the pot off of bluffs, I just don't get any more chips off them. There is also a chance he has KK-JJ here since he checked the flop, and there js no way he can call the river here. In general check-calling is a sound strategy in a spot like this, but I wasn't positive I had the best hand so it's not like I'm comfortable calling a big river bet here.

Does this make sense to any of you?

He is 15% PFR? Too many cards beat us to bet this river and we want to see a cheap showdown. Don't you think he is likely to check behind with most holdings here, except the ones you can't bluff out on the river anyway?
I don't think JJ-KK is likely here b/c he would probably fire at the flop if checked to. I could easily put him on two higher diamonds that missed the A and picked up a draw on the turn, hence the turn bet given your meek actions.
I check/call the river if the bet is small enough. Otherwise C/F if bet is > $15.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silly String

He is 15% PFR? Too many cards beat us to bet this river and we want to see a cheap showdown. Don't you think he is likely to check behind with most holdings here, except the ones you can't bluff out on the river anyway?

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The real question here is, will he fold hands that he would have checked behind with that beat us then?

I should have stated it clearer. It is hard for me to put him on anything other than a drawing hand, and I don't believe he is folding a straight or baby flush for $22.
If he plays 2 pair or a set this poorly, he isn't folding it here either.

btw, do you have the balls (and reads) to c/r opp here?