A-high river bluff vs. Lag.

Button is very lag 38/21, (but seems like a pretty good player from what I've seen from him)so he could have any two raising on the button. I have been playing Tag and haven't gotten out of line. I think his most likely hand is a pocket pair or maybe some crappy straight draw when he checks behind on the turn, and so I think he cannot call a push on the river. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($200)
UTG ($400)
MP ($488.10)
CO ($148)
Button ($1362.15)
Hero ($396)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
3 folds, Button raises to $12, Hero raises to $48, 1 fold, Button calls $36.

Flop: ($100) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $68, Button calls $68.

Turn: ($236) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($236) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $280 (All-In)

After calling the flop and checking the turn it seems likely he's got some kind of made hand (99+). He'd probably bet the turn if he was just floating with nothing.. 99-JJ are pretty vulnerable to overcards, so he'd probably bet the turn with them too. So my guess is he's got QQ+ and checked the turn to induce a bluff or he slowplayed a flopped set.

He didn't have implied (set) odds for the preflop call, so you'll see a lot of QQ+ here..

he has 77 and he calls I think because nothing has changed since he called on the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by johnny_fish

He didn't have implied (set) odds for the preflop call, so you'll see a lot of QQ+ here..

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yea he did

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

he has 77 and he calls I think because nothing has changed since he called on the flop.

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i doubt he calls with 77 on the flop looking to improve. 77 calls on the flop so it can see the hero act again and get more info on to what they have (whether AK or AA).

it seems like whenever i do this line i get called

I ment nothing has changed that would make the villian think that hero's hand has improved to beat his 77.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

Quote:

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Originally Posted by johnny_fish

He didn't have implied (set) odds for the preflop call, so you'll see a lot of QQ+ here..

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yea he did

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Only if Hero's reraising range is QQ+ and almost never folds postflop.

i disagree

Has villain seen you push made hands on the river prior? Or do you usually value bet? I'm more likely to call pushes here than I am when somebody bets 3/4 pot - especially TAGs.

I don't know, villain's line looks a lot like a set turned boat as well... Overpair unlikely as KK+ pushes it pf and QQ- bets turn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

he has 77 and he calls I think because nothing has changed since he called on the flop.

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So just b/c I check the turn that automatically means I have nothing? That turn card is SWEET for an overpair. Rainbow board with the bottom card paired, means if he doesn't have a set he's drawing to 2 outs. That is a great card to check an overpair on. I think calling a river push with 77 just because "nothing has changed" is a very -EV play, hence I think he folds 77 to a river push.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by johnny_fish

He didn't have implied (set) odds for the preflop call, so you'll see a lot of QQ+ here..

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I disagree completely. We both know he is lag and I'm tag, and so I don't need a narrow range to repop his button raise. He knows people expect him to be opening with crap on the button, so he knows I'm going to be doing this with a lot of hands, hence he doesn't need a premium hand to call pf, plus he has position.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by r8ed

Has villain seen you push made hands on the river prior? Or do you usually value bet? I'm more likely to call pushes here than I am when somebody bets 3/4 pot - especially TAGs.

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I'm not sure if he's seen me push on the river before. But as far as pushing vs 3/4 pot, I don't think there's a big difference at all. If you automatically think push = bluff, then you will lose a lot of money because it simply isn't true. I'm totally capable of pushing the nuts here (so should any good player), which is why I push as a bluff in this spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by r8ed

Has villain seen you push made hands on the river prior? Or do you usually value bet? I'm more likely to call pushes here than I am when somebody bets 3/4 pot - especially TAGs.

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You obviously don't play on Stars.

I dunno I just think this looks too much like what it is.

Just to show that I am perfectly capable of taking this exact same line with a made hand. Villian is lag and I'm tag.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($603.50)
MP ($139.50)
CO ($1149.20)
Button ($158)
SB ($922)
Hero ($400)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
2 folds, CO raises to $16, 2 folds, Hero raises to $52, CO calls $36.

Flop: ($106) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $68, CO calls $68.

Turn: ($242) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($242) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $280 (All-In), CO folds.

Final Pot: $522