weak?

villain is like 10/0/0/10 over 40-50 hands. does it look extremely obvious to anyone else that he has AJ or am i crazy?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($18.85)
BB ($27.05)
UTG ($9.05)
UTG+1 ($22.25)
MP1 ($14.40)
Hero ($103.01)
CO ($24.52)
Button ($6.83)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, BB calls $1, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($2.85) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($2.85) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1.

River: ($4.85) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero folds.

Im sorry, but this is terribly weak IMO. Why wouldnt you bet this flop...it is pretty scary, you dont want to give him a free card. What are you hoping for raising AQ if you dont bet when you hit your ace? Then again on the turn he is awfully weak there, definitely looks like second pair or a draw.

If anything you set him up for a bluff and should call there every time with him thinking KJ is good.

EDIT: I didnt see opponents stats......He could be playing this way with QQ/KK with no PFR and got scared by the ace. I think this makes the call even more valid.

my analysis: ok the nit of all nits (small sample size, but 10% vpip is pretty low regardless, 0 aggression factor) calls a tight players raise OOP. range = AJ, AQ, AK, maybe KQ, and pairs i suppose, i dunno if he includes small ones. aside from his 0 AF, my stack is huge, people arent bluffing me, and ive been c-betting every flop. so on the flop i think hes betting every hand in his range except AJ, AA, JJ, and maybe AK expecting me to bet. i check behind for those reasons and pot control. turn, he bets 1/3 the pot, which to me seems like a raise me bet. river, he overbets the pot out of disappointment because he hasnt gotten shit in the pot. and the btw the typical player raises preflop QQ,KK, AK here, and i see no reason why i would be bluffed on the river by QQ or KK when he obviously has showdown value if i am so weak. and large river bets are almost never bluffs at these stakes in my experience, especially from a guy with stats like this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BobbySalami

Im sorry, but this is terribly weak IMO. Why wouldnt you bet this flop...it is pretty scary, you dont want to give him a free card. What are you hoping for raising AQ if you dont bet when you hit your ace? Then again on the turn he is awfully weak there, definitely looks like second pair or a draw.

If anything you set him up for a bluff and should call there every time with him thinking KJ is good.

EDIT: I didnt see opponents stats......He could be playing this way with QQ/KK with no PFR and got scared by the ace. I think this makes the call even more valid.

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he cant have 2nd pair or a draw. As is on the board, and KJ isnt in his range. KK and QQ either check or blocking bet right? i was planning on calling the river until he bet $5

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bair

river, he overbets the pot out of disappointment because he hasnt gotten shit in the pot.

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That's almost definitely what happened. Nice hand, I like every street.

I would have bet the flop also, but every other St. looks fine.