Turn semibluff against huge nit

He was 18/5 over 300 hands or so, basically I'm putting him on AK/AQ and I don't think he can call a check raise all in on the turn with those hands. AAA is definitely possible here but I think AK/AQ is more likely. How does it look?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($276.50)
CO ($344.23)
Button ($271.78)
SB ($447.75)
Hero ($207.55)
UTG ($197)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP raises to $8, 2 folds, SB (poster) calls $7, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($24) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $17, SB folds, Hero calls $17.

Turn: ($58) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $35, Hero raises $182.55 (All-In)

I like a b3b on the flop. If he's that nitty, then he'll probably fold AK/AQ anyway, and you have a ton of equity even if he calls with those hands. Why did you c/c flop?

But, as played, I think your line is ok. I think he'll fold AK/AQ, but I also think this player checks that turn a lot with top pair hands, which makes his turn bet (and sizing) a little confusing.

results aside, this is a pretty good spot for the line, especially if you play some sets like that, smooth call flop check-push turn. you have diamonds and any 5 FTW, and that 1/2 pot bet seems like a weakish bet that makes me agree w/ a read of AK/AQ. If he has AAA, you still have decent outs and only lose your 2d and 3d as good outs.

the only real thing about this spot that makes me question the flop call (assuming role of villain, anyway) would be how often i thought you were capable of smooth calling 333 or 444 on that board. weaker sets like that tend to call for more action on the flop because of the combo flush and straight draws out there. if the flop was more like Ad9d3c then a smooth call wouldn't be as suspect (99 smooth call there is easier to make than 33 smooth call). i hope that makes sense. at any rate, you can smooth call a set every now and then even w/ a diamond draw out there, then it makes it tougher to tell if you are calling a draw or calling w/ a monster.

if i were opp i call here against alot of tags

I like it. He'd fold Ax usually and you have outs vs. 2p/set.

I wonder if b/3b flop is more +EV here.. Maybe not because he won't raise Ax often enough.

I don't like the balance here.

Why not just make it $100? $120?

I could've went for the bet/3bet all in, but he was very passive and I didn't think he would raise me with AK/AQ, although he might with AAA. Usually this is an easy flop check-raise, but I waited for the turn because I thought that it would get more respect. I assumed he would put me on a draw and fire again on the turn.

There is really little difference between raising a different amount than all in. If anything, a smallish raise might confuse villain to think we're fucking around or he might mistakenly think he has fold equity with half my stack behind. I prefer to just take the guesswork out of it, I also play sets exactly in the manner of just shoving when a standard raise would committ me anyways.