Pot odds?

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10-01-2006, 06:45 PM
Fnord

Pot odds?

Semi-tight passive, thinking opponent.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($99.80)
BB ($275.65)
UTG ($203.90)
MP ($195)
CO ($166.25)
Fnord ($262)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
2 folds, CO calls $2, Fnord raises to $8, 1 fold, BB calls $6, CO calls $6.

Flop: ($25) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Fnord bets $16, BB raises to $38, CO folds, Fnord calls $22.

Turn: ($101) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $52, Fnord folds.

Final Pot: $153

Results in white below:
No showdown. BB wins $153.
10-01-2006, 07:40 PM
UG

nh, sucks you didn't hit on the turn because if you do YOU GET PAID
10-01-2006, 07:45 PM
Fnord

I doubt either EJ nor Renton fold this.

Still a little on the fence myself, but that was one of the worst possible turn cards.
10-01-2006, 07:55 PM
elipsesjeff

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I doubt either EJ nor Renton fold this.

Still a little on the fence myself, but that was one of the worst possible turn cards.

?? well, other than a 4 or a 9, I think the 8 is the next best card.

Villain is in the blinds, and his check/raise very well may be a defense of some kind. A7, a couple clubs, all follow similar patterns. I don't like a fold here at all on the turn. 3:1 pot odds and you need to win $100 on the river when you do hit if you are behind and hit your straight. I think its very likely you get that. Maybe its the LHE in me, but I hate folding these draws when villain and me are both deepstack and the bet isn't a full pot.

Secondary Question: How would you play this hand in a LHE 6 max game? I would raise the heck out of it. Then again, I live in a dream world.
10-01-2006, 07:59 PM
UG

Quote:

I doubt either EJ nor Renton fold this.

They probably don't, because you're right, it is close.....but I'm a nit so I fold on the turn. :)

Quote:

Still a little on the fence myself, but that was one of the worst possible turn cards.

How so? You're playing this against a semi-tight passive and he's betting into you, there's no way you think your 8 is good here, do you? Our opponent probably has a set or overpair here...Or is it because even if a 9 or a 4 comes we won't get paid?
10-01-2006, 08:04 PM
UG

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Villain is in the blinds, and his check/raise very well may be a defense of some kind.

Now *this* is the LHE-guy talking here... :)

A semi-tight passive probably isn't going to check-raise the flop and lead out like that on the turn......unless he's got something pretty solid.
10-01-2006, 09:24 PM
alias2211

its the one of the worst cards because it kills action against a passive w/ a set, but it doesn't get them off the hand often enough for bluff attempts difficult to be worthwhile.
10-01-2006, 10:07 PM
elipsesjeff

I have a hard time putting villain directly on a set here, given that he minraised +3BB.

I do believe he's got a strong draw, a weak two pair, an Ax pair, or an overpair, with 99 most likely.

The thing that I'm not convinced about is that he is a semi-tight passive, but he's also a thinking player. His hand isn't that strong IMO or he wouldn't have check/raised the flop to get the CO out. A semi-tight passive thinking player is like Fnord here, i guess is my conclusion.
10-01-2006, 10:38 PM
UG

I'm going with 99/TT/JJ, a set, or some sort of draw here. Given our opponent I really doubt it's a draw, though.

Semi-tight passives usually don't call with Ax out of the blinds, at least not usually. They surely won't be calling with 57s out of the blinds to a raise (again, not usually). That leaves the hands listed above as to what he probably has, especially since we've shown aggression.

Is there a better play than a fold here? Our hand doesn't have much showdown value unless we improve....and if we improve we might not get paid off here to make it worth a call.

If we push do you think our opponent, again, a semi-tight passive that has shown aggression, will actually fold? I guess he's got about $150 behind still so there's plenty of FE there.....
10-01-2006, 10:42 PM
Miffed22001

i want to call here but im a station.
Doesnt look like you have FE consdiering player/action/line.

Why do i also think opp may have JJ/QQ or a one pair hand here that should have reraised preflop?
10-01-2006, 11:30 PM
elipsesjeff

Quote:

Is there a better play than a fold here? Our hand doesn't have much showdown value unless we improve....and if we improve we might not get paid off here to make it worth a call.

If we push do you think our opponent, again, a semi-tight passive that has shown aggression, will actually fold? I guess he's got about $150 behind still so there's plenty of FE there.....

This is what I was getting at as well. You have two things here that, in my opinion contradict each other. Thinking about how Gabe would play it, which I am trying emulate his style (if he'll let me). If we do push, I think we take this down a lot the times are behind.

Fnord, question for you, if you had a flush draw do you fold here?
10-02-2006, 12:12 AM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by alias2211

its the one of the worst cards because it kills action against a passive w/ a set, but it doesn't get them off the hand often enough for bluff attempts difficult to be worthwhile.

Pretty much my read. Every card I hit on is a scare card and playing a rivered trips/2pr is going to suck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Why do i also think opp may have JJ/QQ or a one pair hand here that should have reraised preflop?

I was thinking TT+/set. Discount QQ+ because it usually gets re-raised.

He's grilling me up good and in no hurry to blow me off my hand, hence I'm reading a lot of legit strength here.

That being said, against a such a well defined hand do we call?

Another thought: I see guys like this play hands where they should have had the other guys stack and their lines don't get there.
10-04-2006, 03:58 PM
Renton

i don't fold here, because i think i might have the best hand, and if i don't i have 8 clean outs and 5 semi-clean ones. (basically I put villain on a draw or two pair)
10-04-2006, 05:13 PM
Galapogos

Looks like a combo draw to me. Is he too nitty to play a pair /w flush draw like this?