goal: make him fold a pair. (!)

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11-07-2006, 01:09 AM
Lukie

goal: make him fold a pair. (!)

All I really have on this guy is that he hasn't been getting out of line. He isn't one of the big time regs, but I recognize the name and he might be multi-tabling. If memory serves me right (it usually does), I don't think I had really done much that was noteworthy yet and I possibly may have not been there for very long.

Anyway, given that he calls my UTG raise and then pops me for the minimum on the flop, I think a mid pair or a flush draw is a big part of his range, favoring the mid pair IMO. If he has a flush draw, AWESOME. AQ high = goot. Of course he could have something that absolutely crushes us, but whatever. It's only one stack, and we have to work with what we've got!

ummmm, thoughts? I cover him by $50, if it matters.

ps, whether or not I would push TT or KK or AA or 33 or an A-high flush draw is probably not very important, it's what he thinks that my range is. For whatever it's worth, I'd be thrilled to push more hands then most people in this spot, probably, all of which probably have more equity then AQ high, no draw. The distinction between A high and AQ high though is quite important though, given that he could have an A high flush draw with a worse kicker pretty easily in this spot. edit: also, I want my kicker to be live if he has a pair, duh. Backdoor 3rd nut flush draw is pretty cool as well.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($386)
Hero ($400)
MP ($427.30)
CO ($400)
Button ($350.40)
SB ($461.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $16, 2 folds, Button calls $16, 2 folds.

Flop: ($38) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $36, Button raises to $72, Hero raises to $384
11-07-2006, 01:11 AM
Fnord

Once you get past this LAgg phase, you'll be a better and more dangerous player.
11-07-2006, 01:13 AM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Once you get past this LAgg phase, you'll be a better and more dangerous player.

I'd consider it more like tight, spewy agressive, but you're probably right. What do you think about the hand?
11-07-2006, 01:20 AM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

What do you think about the hand?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

tight, spewy agressive
11-07-2006, 01:32 AM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

What do you think about the hand?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

tight, spewy agressive

haha, gotcha.

Would you call with 99 in this spot if you were villain, against me?
11-07-2006, 02:14 AM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Would you call with 99 in this spot if you were villain, against me?

I'm not him. Neither are you.

I never was very good at finding good spots for heroic calls. Given how aggro these games figure to get, I'm working on it. ;-)
11-07-2006, 02:21 AM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Would you call with 99 in this spot if you were villain, against me?

I'm not him. Neither are you.

I never was very good at finding good spots for heroic calls. Given how aggro these games figure to get, I'm working on it. ;-)

gotcha.

Anyway, villain goes into the tank, so I know flush draw is out. I don't think anybody in the history of poker has ever folded a flush draw here. Sure enough, he calls, with 77!!! HYACHACHACHACH, kill me now (river brings a beautiful looking red Q. AQ Good!) I think lee felt sorry for me after losing that $5000 pot at 5/10 with a set of kings, lol.

It was probably a bad push by me, but still a bad call on his end against my range, IMO. I don't like how he got there either, but whatever.
11-07-2006, 12:50 PM
elipsesjeff

If I were him, given your range, I can find a call. If you had AA you definately wouldn't mind him in the lead. Your raise allin is more that you don't want a call than you do want one. Then again I know the results of the hand and I tend to agree with Fnord.
11-07-2006, 12:59 PM
Xanadu

Shouldn't you discount the possibilities of a flush draw here? It's pretty damned foolish of him to min-raise you with a flush draw.
11-07-2006, 01:05 PM
gabe

i would push here with oc+fd starting around QsJs, and QQ-AA
11-07-2006, 01:09 PM
alias2211

as a metagame issue for 1/2 and 2/4nl, i really think you're more likely to get a call here because of the massive overbet size of your 3bet on the flop. i just don't think enough players play overpairs like that in relation to the way they play their draws for the random player to see it as anything but an attempt to push them off a slightly better hand. you would be more successful at making him fold a mid-overpair like that by 3betting an amount that does scream OMFG i got a GD flushdraw babeeeee!!!!!!!!!!

and you're right, even if you personally play your overpairs like that as a way to balance the line, it's probably irrelevant. what's so much more important is that not enough people around you do, so it looks odd in context of 1/2 and 2/4 nl. 3/6 and 5/10 are different in that respect.
11-07-2006, 01:22 PM
Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by alias2211

even if you personally play your overpairs like that as a way to balance the line, it's probably irrelevant. what's so much more important is that not enough people around you do

Stop giving good advice ;-)
11-07-2006, 02:14 PM
Renton

your risk/reward is terrible. Repop to 200, or check/push turn seem better.

but what do i know, i can't even beat 1/2
11-07-2006, 02:25 PM
johnny_fish

Quote:

I think a mid pair or a flush draw is a big part of his range, favoring the mid pair IMO.

How about call, lead safe turn then?
11-07-2006, 05:03 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

If I were him, given your range, I can find a call. If you had AA you definately wouldn't mind him in the lead. Your raise allin is more that you don't want a call than you do want one. Then again I know the results of the hand and I tend to agree with Fnord.

given my range, it's a pretty bad call. :)

I've also always disagreed with the notion that big bets mean that someone wants a fold. In practice, I've found that in many cases, it's the other way around, myself included. I think I'm starting to get this reputation that I make plays like this consistently (the reputation can't be a bad thing), but in truth, it's really not the case. I won't say that I never spew off a buyin or three here and there, though.

My only problem with pushing here with AA is that I would do it so fast and be so excited about it. In this hand, I probably thought about it a short bit... "ok, risking 300 to win 145, probably have 25%ish equity if called, possibly ~0%, oh $&*# that, he has a pair and he's going to fold, ALL-IN!"
11-07-2006, 05:05 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xanadu

Shouldn't you discount the possibilities of a flush draw here? It's pretty damned foolish of him to min-raise you with a flush draw.

Hard to say. In the past, I used to see this play (min-raising the flop lead with a flush draw) with a ton of regularity. I havn't seen it as much lately, though.
11-07-2006, 05:11 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by alias2211

as a metagame issue for 1/2 and 2/4nl, i really think you're more likely to get a call here because of the massive overbet size of your 3bet on the flop. i just don't think enough players play overpairs like that in relation to the way they play their draws for the random player to see it as anything but an attempt to push them off a slightly better hand. you would be more successful at making him fold a mid-overpair like that by 3betting an amount that does scream OMFG i got a GD flushdraw babeeeee!!!!!!!!!!

and you're right, even if you personally play your overpairs like that as a way to balance the line, it's probably irrelevant. what's so much more important is that not enough people around you do, so it looks odd in context of 1/2 and 2/4 nl. 3/6 and 5/10 are different in that respect.

It's really not that much of an overbet. I push good hands in spots like these all the time. I'm not sure how well this particular player knows me though, that's why I havn't made a huge deal out of it b/c it doesn't matter much.

pot would be about 180 after my call...... I cover him by 50 so it's only an effective raise to 334, so it's like a 260 raise into a 180 pot. I guess it is a bit of an overbet, but stacks are kind of awkward here so I think it is at least a little bit standard among agressive players to find a push here. I don't know what site you play on, but I think you'd be surprised at the level of agression in the 2/4 game on stars.
11-07-2006, 05:25 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

your risk/reward is terrible. Repop to 200, or check/push turn seem better.

but what do i know, i can't even beat 1/2

I don't necessarily agree that my risk/reward is terrible. It might be a -ev bet, but let's take a look at the risk/reward and I'll try to explain my reasoning. Pot is about 145 when action gets to me for the second time on the flop.

I'm jamming about 300 in there to win 145 as a semibluff, and I feel that I often have upwards of 30% equity if called. for simplicity's sake, let's say that it's 300 to win 150, with 25% equity (best case scenario, he has a worse flush draw, most likely scenario is he has a mid pair and my overcards and BFD are both live, worst case scenario he has A2s or 33 -- I think he folds pretty much all 2's though and nobody ever raises an overfull on the flop--bad news is that it would be a small raise if they did).

Anyway, I'll have $175 (25%) equity in a will be ~$700 pot. So I'm risking $300 to have $175 equity, a net loss of -$125 when called. There's already $150 dead money in the pot. AKA +$150 when he folds.

Thus, my fuzzy math tells me that if he has a mid pair and folds half the time, this is a profitable bet.

Damn, I felt kinda stupid making the play at the time, but it's starting to grow on me...
11-07-2006, 05:32 PM
Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

your risk/reward is terrible. Repop to 200, or check/push turn seem better.

but what do i know, i can't even beat 1/2

Also, I want to ask you about your alternative lines.

I don't see how repopping to 200 changes much really. There's only $330 effective stacks on the flop. If it gives my line more credibility, then I guess I would understand, but decent players will see it as the same as pushing. I would have to call a 4-bet push getting such a great price, given the other guy's range, so I don't see how it changes the risk reward much.

As far as check/push turn, can you elaborate? There will be about 180 in the pot with 260 eff stacks on the turn. Check/pushing there seems.... kinda bad.
11-07-2006, 06:15 PM
Renton

yea check pushing is bad, i miscalculated the pot. I think that you can threebet (maybe to like 180-190) and fold to a push though, because i don't think you can be positive that you will have 30% equity when calling. Remember, his range narrows he puts more raises in.
11-07-2006, 10:52 PM
alias2211

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

It's really not that much of an overbet. I push good hands in spots like these all the time. I'm not sure how well this particular player knows me though, that's why I havn't made a huge deal out of it b/c it doesn't matter much.

pot would be about 180 after my call...... I cover him by 50 so it's only an effective raise to 334, so it's like a 260 raise into a 180 pot. I guess it is a bit of an overbet, but stacks are kind of awkward here so I think it is at least a little bit standard among agressive players to find a push here. I don't know what site you play on, but I think you'd be surprised at the level of agression in the 2/4 game on stars.

i don't disagree with much of this as a logical framework. however, what you're saying is only useful in a vaccuum. in a real environment, that (albeit slight) overbet really does tip the scales. there is a window of utility for this line, and it stops at pot sized. i am not saying this makes sense to me. i am saying this is my experience.
11-07-2006, 11:55 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

I think you should call the flop, hope for an overcard like a T or better to come, and then lead out like 150 on the turn. even if the turn comes a spade, you do have a flush draw. I just think if the turn comes some high card hyou have tons more fold equity.
11-08-2006, 12:49 AM
mcatdog

Quote:

Originally Posted by Massimo

I think you should call the flop, hope for an overcard like a T or better to come, and then lead out like 150 on the turn. even if the turn comes a spade, you do have a flush draw. I just think if the turn comes some high card hyou have tons more fold equity.

I really don't like this line. IMO it looks exactly like two overcards and a flush draw which are trying to use the overcard as a scare card even though it didn't help them.
11-08-2006, 06:07 AM
Miffed22001

if opp is calling with 77 here then hes making us money period. I love how you played this and the fact that he actually looked you up.
FWIW id put you on overs and a flush draw here and stuff the heroic call.