Opponent overbet AI on river... fold eveyrtime?

Stage #509739395: Holdem No Limit $1 - 2006-12-05 14:58:38 (ET)
Table: BEN HOGAN AVE (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - SKAMPILI ($199.50 in chips)
Seat 4 - GIBBAN444 ($99.30 in chips)
Seat 5 - DBLACK ($114.10 in chips)
Seat 6 - VOVA06 ($58.35 in chips)
Seat 1 - SUPER_MONKEY ($54.15 in chips)
GIBBAN444 - Posts small blind $0.50
DBLACK - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPER_MONKEY [Qc Ac]
VOVA06 - Calls $1
SUPER_MONKEY - Raises $4 to $4
SKAMPILI - Folds
GIBBAN444 - Folds
DBLACK - Folds
VOVA06 - Calls $3
*** FLOP *** [8c 8d Qh]
VOVA06 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Bets $8
VOVA06 - Calls $8
*** TURN *** [8c 8d Qh] [Kc]
VOVA06 - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Checks
*** RIVER *** [8c 8d Qh Kc] [Jd]
VOVA06 - All-In $46.35
SUPER_MONKEY - ???

I folded but im curious what you guys think his bet means... he is crushing me almost all the time, right?

reload pf

why bet the flop?
Your opp could have AK (at a stretch i admit) or is drawing to 2 outs. Id check the flop and bet the turn controlling the pot size but getting some value from middle pairs etc.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

why bet the flop?

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because he'll get called by terrible hands

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

why bet the flop?
Your opp could have AK (at a stretch i admit) or is drawing to 2 outs. Id check the flop and bet the turn controlling the pot size but getting some value from middle pairs etc.

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His check on the turn controlled the pot size well IMO.

I bet this flop pretty much every time wether I hit it or not.

On this river a fold is very simple. Had we rivered the nut flush or straight we could talk. Right now we have second pair on a very scary board, no need to try and be a hero.

Easy fold, if the K did not come on the turn you could've easily call this hand.

With that said, if you're asking me what he has, he prolly has a PP lower than the board, or hit the K on the turn at best. I'd call him if I was in the hand, there are way too many players out there who plays all-in poker and way too little players who are gutsy enough to call an all-in bet out of nowhere.

against most players Id

Bet flop
check turn
fold to river overbet.

His bet looks like a "shit i missed my checkraise. How do I get value now?"

@Miff: Checking the flop to get value from middle pairs here is silly since this is exactly the kind of flop people like to float on anyway.

I bet the flop decently hard because that is what I'd do if im going to try and get a fold on this board. My goal is for him to say "Hmmm.. if he had a Q would he try and push me out, or is he just trying to buy the pot?". I checked the turn because at that point, he may have an 8, may have just hit a K, and I just picked up the nut flush draw. I get to see the river for free and if he does have a big hand he can't check raise me on the turn...

River I don't think I can call, but I wanted to. I don't think I'm winning anywhere near enough to call, and luckily the pot is decent, but not too big that i have to call.